Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
698 FXUS62 KKEY 130202 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1002 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a well-defined ribbon of Saharan airmass, highlighted by formidable dry air above the 800 mb isobaric surface. With that said, satellite-derived precipitable water products show the back edge of this dry air is slowly progressing into the distant Straits of Florida. Local Doppler radar shows widely scattered showers developing in this moistened environment in the eastern Straits, with virtually no meteorological echo returns outside of this region. Temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 80s, and dewpoints in the upper 70s. For the rest of tonight, meteorological reasoning suggests the aforementioned dry air and the likely lack of residual, convectively-driven ghost boundaries in the vicinity of the Florida Keys should yield a generally dry forecast. The exception to this may be in the Straits, where the moistened environment will continue to support developing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. All available mesoscale numerical weather prediction guidance supports this evolution. The deeper moisture will be overhead the Florida Keys by Tuesday, which should support increased measurable rain chances for that period. No changes were required or made to the inherited short- term forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. An Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across Florida will support gentle to moderate easterly breezes through Wednesday. Breezes will slacken and veer to the northwest by Thursday night as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard. As a result, breezes will become more chaotic by Friday as the ridge axis fractures over Florida. Tropical Storm Ernesto near the Leeward Islands will move north towards Bermuda Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A shallow dry air mass will continue to transit across the island chain ovenight, keeping VCSH out of the TAFs for both EYW and MTH terminals. As increased moisture approaches the Keys on Tuesday, this will need to be reevaluated for the late TAF period. Surface winds will remain out of the east at 6 to 8 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 84 92 84 / 20 10 30 30 Marathon 92 83 92 83 / 20 10 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest