Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
510 FXUS62 KKEY 071507 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1107 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A peaceful start to the week is underway across the Florida Keys this morning. GOES-19 visible imagery notes mostly sunny skies across the island chain with a patchy field of fair weather cumulus percolating in the Straits of Florida. KBYX radar is generally clear of precipitating echoes but has detected a brief pop up shower or two appearing among the clouds in the Straits. Light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes persist along the Reef after they gradually backed from the south overnight. Surface ridging extending west from the North Atlantic is to blame for this wind shift thus leading our sensible weather into a more normal pattern for this time of year. Despite a return to form, rain chances remain slight as a pocket of relatively drier air lingers over the Keys. CIMSS MIMIC PW notes values near 1.6 inches painted across and in the nearshore waters of the island chain surrounded by increasing values on all sides. This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding is in agreement with a PW of 1.68 inches recorded. The sounding also shows a low inversion at around 975 mb restricting MLCAPE to less than 500 J/kg. A lack of instability coupled with weak winds promoting little lift (and being the wrong direction for cloud lines development) keeps PoPs at a local minimum relative to the last few days. As a result, temperatures across island communities are already in the upper 80s with a couple locations breaching 90. While there is a column of drier air observed above the previously mentioned low level inversion, surface dewpoints remain in the upper 70s leading into what will likely be a hot and muggy early July day. Tonight, breezes will continue to back, becoming more easterly and then eventually northeast to east leading up to tomorrow morning. No changes to the forecast are required at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, ridging draped across the area will maintain light to gentle easterly breezes through the next few days. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are close to normal through the start of the week, but an easterly wave may result in some unsettled weather moving into the area starting Wednesday, and may continue into the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out, low confidence in development of showers near a terminal will keep mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, becoming more easterly by this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was last recorded at Key West. On the same day, the daily record warm low temperature of 84F was last recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 91 81 / 20 20 20 30 Marathon 89 82 89 81 / 20 20 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest