497
FXUS62 KKEY 131455 AAD
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
Although satellite-derived moisture products indicate a wave of
tropospheric saturation continuing to propagate through the
Florida Keys, the 12z morning sounding at KEY continued to sample
residual Saharan dry air above a weak inversion based at around
800 mb. It should thus come as no surprise that all shower
activity being detected by nearby KAMX Doppler radar is very
shallow in nature. Outside of isolated showers dotting the entire
forecast area, skies are mostly sunny. Conditions are borderline
oppressive, with heat indices well into the mid 100s at most
island communities at this late morning hour.

A somewhat challenging forecast for today. Despite decent low-
level lapse rates and lower tropospheric moistening, flow
continues to slowly collapse. Mesoscale numerical weather
prediction guidance is somewhat bullish on shower activity
blossoming through this early afternoon in the vicinity of the
island chain. We are not sold on this solution, given the
aforementioned dry air aloft and slackening steering flow. Have
elected to retain the inherited low-end chance level PoPs for the
balance of today. Heat will certainly be the main story for today,
with heat indices easily eclipsing 110F at times this afternoon.
Please limit outdoor activity, taking frequent breaks from the
heat, if possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. An Atlantic ridge axis stretching
west across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate
easterly breezes through Wednesday. Breezes will slacken and
shift to the northwest by Thursday night, as a trough dips south
along the Eastern Seaboard. Breezes will become more chaotic by
Friday as the ridge axis fractures over Florida. Strengthening
Tropical Storm Ernesto near the Leeward Islands will move north
towards Bermuda Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Showers are currently waxing and waning near EYW so VCSH has
been included for the next few hours, thereafter near normal rain
chances for the day will continue on. Near surface winds will be
easterly at near 5 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Twenty years ago today in 2004, Hurricane Charley made landfall
in the Dry Tortugas as a strong category 2 hurricane. Storm surge
of 6 feet and over topping waves caused extensive flooding at
Fort Jefferson. Key West International Airport recorded sustained
winds of 48 mph, with gusts to 57 mph. Peak wind gusts were
recorded at Sombrero Key Light of 64 mph, and Sand Key of 62 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  92  84  92  83 /  30  30  30  30
Marathon  92  84  92  83 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....BT/AP

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