Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
274 FXUS62 KKEY 070905 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 505 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 We really hit the ground running on the overnight shift last night when a cluster of showers and thunderstorms pushed across portions of the Lower Keys, very temporarily bringing temperatures down! The ASOS at the Key West International Airport was reporting air temperatures in the mid 80s with heat indices in the upper 90s just before 9 PM EDT last night. Between 9:30 and 10 PM, as the rain and thunderstorms unfolded, the temperature at the airport dropped to the upper 70s with no heat index registering. The temperature didn`t stay down, and very shortly after the activity cleared up, we settled into the lower 80s for the rest of the night. Our 00Z KEY sounding calculated a PWAT of 1.89" which is just below the 75th percentile of 1.96". This value is probably a little outdated now since we are about ten hours post-launch, so we can look at CIMSS MIMIC PWAT and see that there`s a large range of values between approximately 1.4" to 2.1". It is worth noting that the lower values will likely prevail for today since the airmass advecting into the area has similar values. All we`re trying to say is that, compared to yesterday, our air is just a little bit drier. We`ll go ahead and maintain the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, because someone will probably see a pop up shower today. We aren`t dry enough to bring dew points down significantly, so heat indices will once again be near the 100F degree mark as temperatures climb into the upper 80s. With low to mid level ridging remaining the dominant pattern over the next few days, the first half of this new work week will see a similar set up each day. Our eyes are still on the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are picking up on a weak mid to upper level easterly wave transversing the region over the end of the week. If the wave tracks to our north, that could lead to less showers and thunderstorms than in the forecast. But if it tracks overhead, we would have a better chance at a wetter end to the week. For now, we`ll continue to advertise near mid chance PoPs, and some cloud cover that may occasionally block the Florida sunshine during the day. Both locals and visitors are encouraged to check for updates while we, and the guidance, try to sort out what the end of the week will look like. && .MARINE... Issued at 417 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, ridging draped across the area will maintain light to gentle easterly breezes through the next few days. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are close to normal through the start of the week, but an easterly wave may result in some unsettled weather moving into the area starting Wednesday, and may continue into the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through the TAF period, though brief transient episodes of MVFR CIGs and visibilities are possible as sky coverage waxes and wanes. A slight (20%) chance for a shower or thunderstorm remains through the TAF period, but timing and coverage is too uncertain for TAF inclusion, so amendments and later routine TAFs will cover activity that does occur. Southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots will persist. Higher gusts are possible with passing showers. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was last recorded at Key West. On the same day, the daily record warm low temperature of 84F was last recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 91 81 / 20 20 20 30 Marathon 89 82 89 81 / 20 20 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest