Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
581 FXUS62 KKEY 141424 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1024 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The Florida Keys remain on the western periphery of a ridge axis extending across the North Atlantic, virtually now on top of the Florida Keys. Winds are slowly responding to the latitudinal location of this feature, becoming light and variable. The 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighted the weak nature of this ridging, with virtually no sampled cap. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is detecting generally mostly sunny skies across the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters, with KBYX only detecting isolated showers dotting the coastal waters. This has allowed temperatures to quickly warm into the upper 80s to near 90F at this late morning hour. Coupled with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80F, it is yet another solid Heat Advisory day on tap for the Keys. For this afternoon, the light steering flow coupled with a moist boundary layer up to around the 750 mb isobaric surface should promote cumulus cloud line development by early afternoon. All mesoscale numerical weather prediction guidance supports this evolution. Inherited around 30% measurable rain chances for today, and this still seems appropriate, given the uncertainty on the degree of cloud line development and if the line forms along or just offshore of the island chain. No changes proposed for this late morning update package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across South Florida will support light to gentle southeast to south breezes through this afternoon, becoming variable. Breezes will shift to the northwest by Thursday night, as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard. As the ridge axis fractures over the Florida Peninsula, breezes will become more chaotic for Friday through Sunday. Strengthening Tropical Storm Ernesto north of Puerto Rico will likely impact the island of Bermuda as a hurricane Friday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Models suggest an explosion of activity early this afternoon but confidence in timing and location leaves VCSH out for the time being. Near surface winds will be be easterly then become light and variable into this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history in 2021, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred moved southwest of Key West on August 14th. Fred produced maximum sustained winds of 32 mph (maximum wind gusts of 45 mph), while Smith Shoal Light, Sand Key Light, and Sombrero Key measured maximum sustained winds of 34 knots (maximum wind gusts of 50 knots, 40 knots, and 40 knots, respectively). Maximum rainfall for this event was measured in the Upper Keys with Key Largo measuring 2.48 inches of rain, Florida Keys Marathon International Airport measuring 0.99 inches, and Key West International Airport measuring 0.73 inches. No significant damage was reported with only minor street flooding and isolated power outages being the biggest impacts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 93 83 92 83 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 93 83 92 83 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest