Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
288 FXUS62 KKEY 151903 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 303 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The KBYX radar has started to show an increase in activity over the past couple of hours this afternoon both across our forecast area as well as over the mainland of Florida. With the rapid increase in activity over the peninsula, it is very likely that we will see even more development within the coming hours. The overall steering flow remains northerly to some degree ahead of a pseudoboundary that will continue to sag down the state over the course of the next few days. Tomorrow and Saturday in particular look to be the best chances for more showers and thunderstorms, and temperatures and dew points will be knocked down by a couple of degrees, and this will help to stave off any heat-related hazard products. The main takeaway for the end of the week and the weekend is that things look to be a little unsettled, but offer some sort of "break" from heat products. After the boundary deteriorates over the region, ridging will have the opportunity to build in again. South to southwesterly flow will return, and temperatures will recover whatever they lose over the weekend. With light winds remaining, it will be possible that we have to revisit heat-related advisories by the start of the work week. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Generally light and variable breezes will continue over the end of the week and into the weekend. The general air flow looks like it`ll be a northwesterly direction, but at the surface we may see erratic and variable directions due to the light nature of the breezes. Over the course of the weekend, breezes will remain light, but the direction will veer around the clock as a transversing ridge axis fractures across the region. Near the end of the weekend, we will see ridging try to reestablish itself, and light to gentle breezes may resume a more south to southeasterly direction. Tropical Storm Ernesto north of Puerto Rico will likely impact the island of Bermuda as a hurricane Friday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through 18z Friday afternoon. A broken cloud line along the Lower Keys warrants inclusion of VCSH for the next several hours, although impacts to visibility and ceilings is expected to be limited. Convection off South Florida may also try to reach MTH later this evening, although there is too much uncertainty to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will remain generally light and variable throughout the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1964, Marathon recorded a new record high of 98F. This also ties for the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of August for the Marathon area. Temperature records date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 92 82 89 / 20 30 30 40 Marathon 82 91 81 90 / 30 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest