Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
120 FXUS62 KKEY 200234 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1034 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1034 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 It has been a very quiet evening across the Florida Keys. KBYX is detecting a flurry of showers moving northwest through the distant Straits of Florida. These showers are likely the result of speed convergence due to a wind surge, along with a slug of higher moisture on the heels of a drier airmass currently across the majority of our area. However, these showers are struggling to maintain themselves due to the drier air in the lower to mid levels. This somewhat drier air was sampled well by the 00Z sounding, with an inversion at 970 mb that has likely been a big player in the lack of convective development. On top of the drier air, there has been a lack of triggering mechanism, which has also helped eliminate the chance for showers. High pressure extending across Florida into the Gulf has maintained gentle breezes this evening, with marine observation platforms along the Reef measuring east to southeast winds between 8 and 10 knots. Overnight, showers will continue to struggle prior to reaching the island chain. Hi-res guidance is suggesting the best chance for development is as the nocturnal wind surge is felt along the island chain. With the moisture creeping in and the aforementioned subtle wind surge, have elected to keep 20% PoPs for tonight. No changes were needed to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys forecast area. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through Saturday, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continuing across the Keys coastal waters. Breezes will freshen this weekend as the ridge strengthens to our north. A tropical wave is forecast to move through the area Sunday night and Monday, bringing an increase in rain and thunder chances. Moderate east to southeast breezes will resume behind the wave next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period, with mostly dry conditions expected. Surface winds will be from the east to southeast, with a slight wind surge expected early tomorrow morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1880, a temperature of 97F was recorded in Key West, which is the warmest temperature ever recorded in July, and is tied for the highest temperature ever recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 84 91 84 / 20 10 30 20 Marathon 91 85 91 84 / 20 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest