955
FXUS62 KKEY 151940
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread across the Keys
waters as we go into this evening, but it is still difficult to
say if any portion of the island chain will see anything from
this. As the current activity progresses, it is entirely possible
for any shower or thunderstorm to cross over land, bringing a
quick round of rain and possibly some lightning. Uncertainty
aside, we can simply say that the atmosphere as a whole will
continue to be active tonight, but whether or not we end up with
measurable rainfall in the back yard is harder to say.

The dominant Atlantic ridging will continue to cause easterly to
southeasterly breezes, some clouds mixing in with our sunshine,
and toasty temperatures. Multiple pulses of moisture overall will
continue to keep PoPs around the 20 percent to 30 percent range,
but a sliver of drier air transversing the forecast area sometime
either Tuesday or Wednesday may offer a short-lived break from the
typical summertime activity we have seen.

It is worth noting that heat indices during the afternoon will
continue to pass the 100F mark, but dewpoints in the coming days
may be low enough to keep us below criteria, so it is difficult to
say whether or not there may be any more issued after the one we
have today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through
the duration of the forecast. This will result in gentle to
moderate easterly to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters.
Winds will tend to surge in the evening and night hours and lull
during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH for the
rest of today and into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms continue
to pulse around the western portion of the Keys resulting in VCTS at
EYW. VCSH returns to both terminals this evening as some model
solutions suggest a reforming of scattered convection along the
island chain. Amendments will be required for more specific impacts
if more organized showers or thunderstorms develop and pass through.
Near surface winds will be out of the east to southeast at 7 to 11
knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1733, a Hurricane between Key Biscayne and Key Vaca
sunk several Spanish ships, causing 56 deaths.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  90  83  91 /  40  40  30  30
Marathon  82  89  83  90 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....DR

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