Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
752 FXUS62 KKEY 160832 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 432 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Currently - A surface through mid tropospheric Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. This is maintaining gentle east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys this morning. A broad swath of enhanced lower level moisture is finally beginning to clear west of the Keys and is being followed up by a swath of much drier air. Weak ridging extends reaches northward across our area, between a trough over Texas and a cut off upper low northeast of the Bahamas. Despite slowly retrograding southwestward for days, the cut off low has a only a weak low level reflection. Surface conditions are seasonably warm with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Forecast - The surface through mid level Atlantic ridge will remain strung across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, surface winds will be broadly gentle out of the east. Expect rain probabilities to fall today as the last of the old moisture swath departs to our west. Slight chances will persist into tonight as drier air dominates the lower levels. Expect seasonably warm conditions with highs near or slightly above 90, lows in the lower to mid 80s, and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. While muggy conditions will continue, dew points should remain low enough to allow us to skip Heat Advisories. Expect rain chances to nudge slightly upwards mid week as the band of drier air moves on by and lower level moisture recovers. Otherwise, no signficant change to winds, temperatures, or dew points are expected. The next noticeable change in our weather is expected late this week and into this weekend. The Atlantic ridge is expected to lift northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States. As a result, winds are expected to strengthen moderately out of the east to southeast as the ridge`s tradewind belt shifts northward and closer to the Keys. Dew points should pick up a degree or two. The need for Heat Advisories will be dependent on the balancing between increasing dew points and better ventilation. The increased flow will increase convective potential due to the increased flux and lower level forcing. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An Atlantic ridge will remain draped across the Florida Peninsula through the week. As a result, winds will remain gentle to moderate and broadly out of the east. Expect winds to peak in the evening and night hours and lull during the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH throughout the TAF period. This time of year shower activity cannot be fully ruled out but for the time being VCSH is not included in the TAFs and will be added later if any indication of showers near the terminals pop up. Near surface winds will be east to southeast near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1888, the daily record low temperature of 68F was recorded in Key West. This is also the lowest temperature ever recorded in July. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest