Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
827 FXUS62 KKEY 180239 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1039 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Shower activity has been waxing and waning across the Florida Keys coastal waters for the majority of the evening. None of these showers have moved over land, so no island community has received measurable rainfall thus far. There are some more hefty storms in the waters east of our forecast area, but have yet to make it near the Florida Keys. The 00Z KEY sounding sampled increased moisture since this morning`s sounding, with a PW of almost 2" versus the 12Z value of 1.56". The large layer of dry air sampled previously has dwindled, and CIMSS MIMIC TPW highlights a slug of enhanced moisture moving into the area from the east, which is likely helping with the development of the aforementioned storms. High pressure remains large and in charge tonight and surface winds are being measured at near 10 knots along the Reef. While a nudge down to 20% for rain chances was considered, have decided to keep 30% for overnight. This was because of the shower activity upstream within the area of higher moisture, combined with an expected subtle wind surge. This could be just enough to spark on more showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. No changes were made to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the extended forecast. This will result in gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. Winds will tend to surge in the evening and night hours and lull during the day. Winds may strengthen this weekend as the ridge lifts northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A few passing showers are possible at both terminals, but timing of these showers is hard to nail down, so have not included VCSH in the TAF. Surface winds will be from the east to southeast at 8 to 12 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day last year, the low temperature at Key West was 84 degrees, which tied the daily warm minimum record. This morning`s low was a balmy 85 degrees, putting it on track to set a new daily record. The low at Key West was also 85 degrees yesterday, which tied the daily record, set just last year. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 91 84 91 / 30 30 20 20 Marathon 83 91 83 91 / 30 30 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest