Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
161 FXUS62 KKEY 031847 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 247 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 At this early afternoon hour, Hurricane Beryl is approaching the southern coastline of Jamaica. Composite satellite analysis provides evidence of the storm being assaulted by quite a bit of upper- level shear, with a stubborn upper-level trough just off the Eastern Seaboard, and a building ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico all the way northward to the Northeast. Closer to home, satellite- derived dust products suggest a ribbon of Saharan- driven dust is beginning to impede on the Florida Keys, which was also readily detected in the 12z sounding at KEY. A combination of the drying dust feature along with the aforementioned ridge makes detecting isolated showers a bit difficult across the entire Gulf to east of the Bahamas, something quite unusual for early July. Temperatures across the island chain are hovering near 90F, with dew points in the muggy upper 70s. For tonight, the Florida Keys will remain in a region of large- scale subsidence on the periphery of Beryl. Saharan dust will also remain prevalent, so it is tempting to nudge measurable rain chances to near-nil. However, Beryl will also induce an easterly wind surge, which could promote enough confluence to generate some shallow showers or even isolated thunderstorms. Have elected to retain the inherited 20% measurable rain chances for this period, although this will be reevaluated in the late evening update cycle. For the next several days, Beryl will continue its trek across the western Caribbean. The ridge will remain the dominant feature, coupled with a strong surface high over the entire North Atlantic. This is essentially the climatological July synoptic pattern for South Florida, and thus it is prudent to embrace climatological temperatures and rain chances (PoPs). A tropical wave will make a close approach to the Straits of Florida on Sunday, which may yield a moisture surge and large- scale ascent to warrant a bit more elevated PoPs. Thereafter into early next week, there remains global ensemble support of yet another tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell diving southwestward towards South Florida from the western Atlantic. Ultimate evolution of this feature will have major implications on our sensible weather. For now, it seems prudent to retain the inherited slightly elevated PoPs for this extended period. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm and muggy for the next seven days, with highs near 90F, and lows in the upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes. Hurricane Beryl is well south of the Florida Keys, and this will remain the case, but breezes will briefly freshen tonight as Beryl makes its closest approach to the coastal waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for all Florida Keys coastal waters tonight. As Beryl approaches the Bay of Campeche and the high shifts in the North Atlantic, gentle breezes will veer to the southeast for the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Easterly winds have surged this afternoon as expected and could surge a little stronger tonight as Hurricane Beryl passes south of the Florida Keys. As this secondary surge occurs, we could see some associated isolated showers after 06Z/4th. It remains too soon to know what if any impacts they may have to the island terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 91 83 91 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 83 90 83 90 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest