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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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785 FXUS63 KJKL 012022 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 422 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal will continue through tonight, before temperatures warm to near or slightly above normal on Tuesday. - Humidity will increase through midweek and Afternoon heat indices may approach 100 in some locations Wednesday through Friday - The potential for showers and thunderstorms returns by Thursday, Independence Day, and lasts through the weekend. The highest probability of rain is on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2024 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended from portions of the Southern Plains/Arklatex region northeast into the mid MS Valley to Great Lakes regions. Meanwhile, an upper level trough axis extended from western Canada across MT and portions of the Northern Rockies into southwest Conus. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extended from the Great Lakes to the OH Valley to Arklatex regions. Behind the front that crossed the region on Sunday, the high has ushered in a cooler and drier airmass and only a few passing cirrus were moving across the region at present. Highs so far today have been 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early July. Tonight and Tuesday, the upper level ridge is expected to build across the Southeastern Conus with the axis of the 500 mb ridge remaining west of eastern KY. However, the sfc high pressure ridge will slide to the eastern seaboard through Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, the trough extending across the western Conus at present will move east into the upper MS Valley to Plains region to the south of an upper level low that evolves from Saskatchewan and into Manitoba to far western Ontario. Tuesday night, the axis of the ridge will gradually shift to the east of the area as the upper low reaches the northern Ontario/James Bay vicinity and an associated shortwave trough reaches the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley areas. The cold front associated with this system will remain well northwest of the area through the short term period. The high shifting east across the Great Lakes and the OH Valley region tonight, will lead to another night with low temperatures on the order of 5 to 10 degrees below normal. As this high moves further east on Tuesday, return flow will begin to usher a warmer and more moist airmass into eastern KY. PW is forecast to rise from present levels of below 0.50 inches to about 0.65 inches in the southeast to around 1 inch near Lake Cumberland near dawn on Tuesday per the HREF mean and then further to around 0.9 to 1 inch east and southeast to about 1.3 near Lake Cumberland on Tuesday evening followed by an increase to 1 to 1.3 inches areawide by late Tuesday night. The pattern will favor a moderate ridge/valley temperature split with afternoon min dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s supporting some lows in eastern and northeastern valleys in the low 50s with a 49 or so in some of the typical cold spots. Fog should also form not long after midnight along the larger creeks and especially portions of the Big Sandy and Kentucky Rivers as well as lakes in those basins. Temperatures will warm up nearly 10 degrees from what has been observed so far today on Tuesday with some fair weather cumulus probable by the afternoon as moisture increases. Any cumulus that develops on Tuesday should dissipate by sunset on Tuesday evening and with the upper ridge axis working across the area yet another ridge/valley split should occur with a lesser magnitude than tonight. Valley fog should again occur, but may be more confined to right along the rivers. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 420 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2024 The long term discussion will be issued shortly. 00 && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2024 Surface and upper level high pressure will result in VFR prevailing through the period. The exception will be during the 05Z and 13Z timeframe, where MVFR and IFR and perhaps locally lower reductions are possible in valley fog. This valley fog is not expected to affect the TAF sites however. Winds will be generally be from the northeast at generally less than 10KT through 23Z, before becoming 5KT or less for the remainder of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JP