![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
253 FXUS62 KJAX 080741 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Today, above average moisture levels are in place (PWATs above the 90th percentile ranging 2.25 to 2.40 inches) as a weak frontal boundary remains just north of the area from northern AL/GA into eastern NC. A weak pressure pattern expected as Bermuda surface high pressure ridging which had been over the area yesterday will begin to reform into south FL as an upper level trough approaches slowly from the east. This will allow for more south to SW low level steering flow over the area today and pin the Atlantic seabreeze closer to I-95 by mid afternoon while the Gulf seabreeze moves inland towards highway 301 with numerous showers and T`storms developing due to the combination of strong diurnal instability, above average moisture levels, and lift along the seabreezes. The best focus for strong T`storms will be between highway 301 and I-95 with gusty wet downburst winds 40-50 mph, with low chances for any severe potential today as mid level temperatures of -6 C are still a little warmer than the average of -7 C. Locally heavy rainfall totals also expected east of highway 301 towards the coast with very efficient rainfall rates and slow T`storm motions producing 1-3 inch totals with isolated 4 inch amounts possible with a Marginal Risk (about 5%) of Excessive rainfall, or risk of exceeding flash flood guidance, in place by the Weather Prediction Center for a majority of the area today. Highs will be in the mid 90s for much of the area away from the coastline with lower 90s at the beaches. Peak heat index values will reach heat advisory levels over 108 degrees up to about 111 degrees for all of NE FL and for portions of SE GA generally along and south of US 82 including Brunswick, St Simons Island, and also Waycross. Therefore, a heat advisory will go into effect from 11AM this morning until 7PM, with cooling outflow boundaries potentially providing relief a bit earlier as T`storms develop. Northern portions of SE GA will see heat index values 104-107 degrees. Tonight, convection will fade by around midnight due to the loss of heating and outflow boundaries exhausting remaining instability with mostly cloudy skies as debris clouds linger. Lows will be in the middle to upper 70s for most areas. Some patchy, shallow ground fog is possible over locations that receive locally heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure continues to dominate the region with a synoptic west-southwesterly flow pattern pinning the Atlantic/east coast sea breeze pretty close to the coast. Convection will develop early over the Gulf/Apalachee Bay and will race east. Meanwhile, convection that develops along the east coast sea breeze will try to gradually move west but will converge with the Gulf convection. Convection will train echo/propagate across discrete areas and with PWATS 2.00+ inches locally heavy convection will develop. will see a marginal (5%) chance of exceeding flash flood guidance and flooding is possible especially in urbanized areas. With broken to overcast cloud coverage highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With high RH values will top out with heat index values in the 105-107F range. Convection will diminish between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Some patchy Fog is possible over the interior areas. On Wednesday a low level trough sets up over the upper Gulf coast with more of a westerly flow advecting moisture across the region. Convection will move across the region almost all day with the east coast sea breeze once again pinned along the coast. Once again will be looking at a Marginal risk of flooding. High temperatures will once again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with Heat Index values of 105-108F. Wednesday night`s convection will be slow to diminish with some activity continuing until well after midnight. overnight lows will be in the mid 70s with high relative humidity values overnight leading to sticky conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A frontal system drops down to be along the FL-GA state Line for much of the period and will be the focusing mechanism for widespread convection each day and scattered convection overnight. Total precipitation along the east coast counties could be in the 3 to 5 inch range by Sunday night with PWATS remaining 2.00+ inches. Other than areas where the rainfall rates overwhelm the drainage systems a lot of the east coast areas can use the rainfall as the strong sea breeze has blocked convection from getting back to a lot of those coastal areas. Temperatures remain the same into late week with highs in the mid 90s over the weekend. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS) Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Diurnal convection is beginning to fade as forecast. However, outflow mergers near KGNV may lead to isolated storms until about 02z as well as at airfields across portions of southeast GA between KAYS and KVAD. VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours, except the usual brief bouts of fog near dawn at KVQQ. Storm activity will initiate again with a persistent pattern in place. Given the pulse nature expectation and uncertainty, TEMPO groups were placed at all airfields through the afternoon hours. Winds will be light at or below 5 knots, favoring a southwest until the sea breeze develops around 16/17z. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A weak front will lay to the north through the middle of the week as high pressure ridging aloft remains across the area. The remnant low pressure of Hurricane Beryl will move along the boundary and the accelerate it southward toward the waters toward the end of the work week. Daily afternoon storms are possible with the sea breeze development with increasing thunderstorm potential over the local waters from midweek onward as the front approaches the waters. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents are expected for all area beaches today with a low risk expected on Tuesday due to more prevailing offshore flow. | && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 77 90 76 / 60 50 80 20 SSI 91 78 89 79 / 60 50 90 50 JAX 94 77 90 77 / 80 60 90 50 SGJ 94 76 89 78 / 70 50 90 60 GNV 94 75 85 76 / 70 50 90 40 OCF 94 76 86 76 / 70 50 90 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133- 136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ152>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$