290
FXUS62 KJAX 061747
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
147 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Radar starting to show a few showers developing over areas well
inland...expecting this to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon, with greatest coverage of showers/storms
expected to be across the central portion of the nrn FL peninsula
into s-ctrl GA. Coverage expected to gradually diminish after 00z.
Current low temperature forecast Tonight looks fine with muggy
mid-upper 70s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Plentiful moisture will remain available through the rest of the
weekend and into next week as a frontal boundary remains stalled
over northern GA, as is typical for this time of year. An upper
low drifting towards the southeast US coast through this period
will continue to keep stacked ridging broad, and therefore weak
mean flow/steering. Therefore, the sea breeze will remain the most
dominant feature for this period, with scattered to numerous
convection as both breeze boundaries move inland. Some of the
slightly drier air near the coast will gradually mix out Sunday
and into Monday, which will expand PWATs of 2 inches or higher
area wide, and therefore higher chances near the coast compared to
Saturday. Torrential rainfall will certainly be the the main
hazard, though some wet downbursts up to 40-50mph will also be
possible.

Temperatures come down a bit Sunday and into Monday as well,
closer to normal mostly in the low 90s. This looks to keep us just
below any heat advisory criteria despite dew points remaining in
the mid to upper 70s, though will let the next forecast package
evaluate again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The aforementioned upper low will continue to drift west to
southwestward through most of this period, likely crossing the
southern FL peninsula around Wednesday and Thursday and a remnant
impulse. The weakening of this feature aloft should allow a
surface ridge with the Bermuda High to strengthen just a bit and
build further across the central and southern FL peninsula for at
least the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, allowing a bit more
of a southwesterly flow to the area. Combined aforementioned with
lingering energy aloft, chances for showers and t`storms look to
remain high for the majority of this period. Temperatures trend
overall close to normal for this period, though introducing some
southwesterly flow could creep temps above average, especially
inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Latest satellite imagery shows plenty of cumulus clouds around TAF
sites based at SCT-BKN030-040. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will
develop along west coast and east coast sea breezes later this
afternoon, likely with greatest coverage over central part of ne
FL peninsula, including KGNV area, by late afternoon as sea
breezes converge...maintaining TEMPO group for TSRA at KGNV
20z-00z, VCTS at other inland TAF sites. Light S to SW winds this
afternoon interior areas, with SE winds 6-10kts after passage of
east coast sea breeze for eastern TAF sites. Light winds are
expected Tonight and Sunday morning with VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

High pressure will remain east of the waters through the forecast
period, maintaining fairly light S to SE winds and 2-3 ft seas, with
daily sea breezes each afternoon near the coast.

Rip Currents: Low-end Moderate Risk of rip currents through
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Above average temperatures continue today, then high temperatures
begin to cool as storminess increases over the area starting
Sunday. Today, record high minimum temperatures could be
challenged.

July 6:
KJAX: 79/1902
KGNV: 78/1900

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  92  75  91 /  70  70  60  70
SSI  80  90  79  91 /  10  50  40  70
JAX  76  94  76  93 /  20  60  50  70
SGJ  77  92  78  93 /  10  50  30  70
GNV  75  94  75  91 /  60  70  60  70
OCF  76  95  76  93 /  50  70  60  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-030-031-
     035-120-136-220-236-322-422-522.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-
     152-162-163-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$