740
FXUS62 KJAX 051638
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Squeeze play already evident on visible satellite imagery with
this morning`s low cloudiness lifting and becoming the focusing
mechanism for afternoon and evening convection. The east coast
sea breeze front is approaching I-95 and moving slowly inland.
Precip Water is 2.00+ across the region so locally heavy rainfall
with convection is likely. Expect the main sea breeze front
convergence to be between I-75 and U.S. 301 northward to the FL-
GA State Line and then between U.S. 1 and U.S. 301 over SE
Georgia. With clearing skies tonight and moist ground from the
day`s convection will see fog formation across the interior with a
broken low cloud deck after midnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

This Saturday a cold front will be situated from the western
Carolinas thru north central Georgia into southern Louisiana.
This scenario will allow markedly heighten precipitable water
values (2.25 to 2.40") to pool across the region. A persistent
pattern continues with warm temps aloft with mid level Atlantic
ridge well offshore with our region on the western periphery of
the high pressure area. With warm temperatures aloft (-5C at 5h)
not expecting much in the way of severe convection but some very
localized heavy rain (1 to 3") is anticipated with slow moving
storms. The weak pressure pattern will allowing both the Atlantic
and Gulf coast seabreezes to move inland and merge near highway
301. With drier air aloft, some strong wind gust potential (30 to
45 mph) may occur with some pulse storms along with frequent
lightning. Light east to southeast winds 5-10 mph will move
onshore behind the Atlantic seabreeze with light SW winds behind
the Gulf seabreeze. Highs will rise into the mid 90s away from the
coast with low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will be in
the 105-110 degree range near heat advisory levels, particularly
over the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.

Saturday night, T`storms should end by midnight inland with very
light southerly winds turning near calm well after sunset. Multi
level cloud cover from fading T`storms will slowly disperse
overnight to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid 70s
inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the coast.

Very similar pattern will persist on Sunday. The cold front will
hedge slightly southward with the feature over south central
Georgia to near the FL Panhandle/Alabama border. The mid to upper
level ridging over the eastern Gulf/FL peninsula. With the weak
surface pressure gradient, both seabreezes should merge inland
with locally heavy rainfall creating potential localized flooding
concerns due to the high moisture content and slow storm motions.
Highs will be a only a degree or two lower compared to Saturday
due to more numerous to widespread T`storm coverage and mostly
cloudy skies in the afternoon/early evening hours with low to mid
90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Heat index values will
range 104-108 degrees, again on the precipice of heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Persistent west-central Atlantic ridging over does nudge eastward
over the east-central part of the Basin with some weakening of
the peripheral influence of the western part of the ridge over our
region. A secondary front moves into nearly the same position as
our weekend front keeping a persistent pattern over the region.
Temperatures aloft (H5) stay about the same (-4C to -5C). PWATs
remain sticky (> 2.00 inches) thru much of the period. The
pressure gradient remains weak with storm steering flow light
S/SSW Monday through Tuesday. Weaker flow Wednesday and Thursday
will likely bring merging seabreezes near Highway 301. High end
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers are
anticipated through the period.

Temperatures will begin the period near normal Monday and Tuesday
with highs in the lower 90s and and then warm to above normal
the rest of the week as highs inland reach the mid 90s with
isolated upper 90s not out of the question. Lows will be a little
above normal in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to
near 80 at the immediate coast and St Johns river basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The Atlantic sea breeze front is progressing inland with a
2.5-3.5 kft broken cumulus deck ahead of it. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing over interior areas along an old
surface boundary extending from Hazlehurst to eastern Marion
County. This will continue to develop as the squeeze play sets up
between the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes. As generally occurs
this should be between U.S. 301 and I-75 and will keep the TEMPO
for KGNV for this afternoon. Otherwise, feel comfortable with VCTS
for the other stations and will amend as necessary. Mist/Fog and
low ceiling will develop in the predawn hours in the KGNV- KVQQ
areas.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The Bermuda-Azores High Pressure area will ridge back across the
FL peninsula through the period with nocturnal wind surges each
night along the western periphery of the ridge. Also the east
coast sea breeze front will develop over the near shore waters
each afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend due to an
easterly swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  94  75  92 /  60  70  40  70
SSI  79  91  79  90 /  10  40  20  50
JAX  76  94  76  93 /  10  60  20  50
SGJ  77  92  77  92 /  10  50  10  30
GNV  74  94  73  92 /  30  70  30  60
OCF  75  93  76  93 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-030-031-
     035-120-136-140-220-236-240-322-340-422-522.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>134-149-162-
     163-250-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$