Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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500 FXUS62 KJAX 020819 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 419 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE LATER TODAY... ...INCREASED HEAT INDICES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled over Georgia today as high pressure shifts eastward towards the Atlantic. Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southeast through today and tonight with moist conditions holding ahead of the front with PWAT values measuring between about 2.2 and 2.6 inches. Showers and storms will form with the diurnal eastern sea breeze initially along and to the west of the I-95 corridor and press inland as the afternoon progresses. Strongest developments will occur along boundaries and areas of collision with storms being capable of producing heavy localized rainfall due to the moisture heavy air mass. Convection will become dispersed in the evening and overnight hours with drier conditions carrying over into the next day. High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and for portions of SE Georgia situated behind the frontal boundary. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop down into the mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast. Heat index values will rise to be above 100 degrees today but are not expected to reach Heat Advisory levels this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Weak, nearly stationary frontal boundary lays generally west to east across eastern GA on Wednesday and will briefly be stalled. Sfc high pressure will gradually build north of the boundary by Thursday helping to push the diffuse boundary southward into northeast FL. Mid to upper level ridge will be parked over the southeast states Wednesday through Wednesday night and then slightly retrograde on Thursday as some mid level troughing drops in over SC and eastern GA. PWATs are still forecast to remain elevated at about 2 to 2.3 inches on Wednesday with mean steering flow from the east but only at 5-10 knots. With sea breezes, daytime heating, and the weak frontal boundary, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Wed and will fade in coverage Wed night. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected with the stronger storms mainly inland areas, given the push of the easterly flow moving storms inland. Thursday, shower and storm coverage remains in the scattered to numerous range with the frontal boundary shifting southward, and the axis of higher precip chances drifting southward as well. The lighter synoptic flow and PWATs of at least 2 inches will support locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding. Some drier air will likely be working in from the northeast late Thu into Thur night as the mid level trough from SC pushes deeper moisture further southward. High temps both Wed and Thu expected in the lower 90s most areas with heat indices topping out around 104-108, so near or just below heat advy criteria. This will need to be monitored but at this time not enough area to indicate advisories would be warranted. Lows generally in the mid 70s given the soupy airmass and debris clouds from daytime convection. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Mid to upper layer ridging will prevail over the area Friday through the weekend, with some drier air continuing to work into the area from the east and northeast Friday and Saturday. The mid level ridge will shift southeastward on Monday as mid level troughing drops into the Great Lakes and most of the MS valley area. Sfc ridge will be across north central FL area Friday and slowly shift southward over the weekend and into Monday. Sea breezes and daytime heating expected to support generally just scattered showers and storms each day, but drier air Fri and Sat and warm temps aloft could potential result in just widely scattered (25-30 percent) coverage. Best coverage of storms looks to be near and west of Highway 301 over northeast FL Friday through Sunday. A slight uptick in rain chances for most zones is indicated for Monday as deep moisture levels rise over the area. Ridging and drier air will allow high temperatures to quickly rise into the mid/upper 90s through the weekend. Heat indices will likely rise into heat advisory criteria by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 152 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 MVFR and IFR ceilings will lift over TAF sites tonight. Ceilings will be at VFR levels for most sites through Tuesday morning with ceilings dropping below 3k feet for SSI and then lifting later in the afternoon. Convection will develop at around 18-23z for coastal and Jax Metro sites and extend to about 02-03z further inland at GNV. Conditions will clear overnight with predominantly VFR conditions returning along with mild winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The frontal boundary stalled over local Georgia waters will begin to dissipate, with increasing chances for mainly afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms across our local waters. Prevailing winds will shift to east and southeast today through Wednesday as high pressure builds down the southeastern seaboard. High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southward towards our local waters later this week. Rip Currents: Moderate Rip Current Risk for beaches through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 High moisture (PWATs ~2.3 inches) over the region will lead to heavy downpours from convection especially along and ahead of an approaching frontal boundary/trough from the north. WPC has placed SE GA and small area of northeast FL in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall today. Localized areas could see rain amounts of 3 inches in a short period of time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 74 91 74 / 70 40 70 20 SSI 87 78 89 78 / 60 50 50 30 JAX 91 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 30 SGJ 91 78 91 77 / 60 50 60 30 GNV 92 73 92 74 / 70 60 70 30 OCF 93 75 93 75 / 70 70 70 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$