Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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781 FXUS62 KJAX 031736 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Squeeze play between a trough just to our north, the Atlantic sea breeze and Gulf Sea Breeze front this afternoon and evening will lead to scattered to widespread convection over the spine of the FL peninsula and extreme SE GA. Convection is already popping and will be most significant in the Ocala-Gainesville to Lake City areas. Convection should die off between 10 p.m. and midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 For Independence Day, weak and diffuse frontal boundary looks to be located near the FL/GA state line with low level convergence, PWATs near 2 inches, and west and east sea breezes pushing inland to support scattered to numerous showers and storms, with heaviest concentration/coverage at about 70 percent across inland northeast FL where the best low level forcing will be located. Drier air in the mid levels advecting in from the northeast will support lower coverage across portions of eastern GA. Highs in the lower 90s expected with heat indices generally 104-108, and so continues to suggest just shy of a widespread heat advy conditions. Main t-storm threats will be gusty winds and very heavy rainfall/localized flooding potential given the high moisture content and slow storm motion to the south to southwest. Thursday night, sfc high pressure builds in from the northeast and east. Low level convergence inland and residual daytime instability will support isolated to scattered convection during the evening hours. Convective activity should fade by midnight. Lows continue from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast. Friday, the frontal boundary is no longer noted in the guidance and general sfc high pressure ridge is over the region. Mid level ridge will be just west of the area, and mean deep layer winds are only about 5 knots. Best moisture is located inland with PWATS near 2 inches, and this is where we have the best rain chances at 40-60 percent, and tapering to 30-40 percent near the coast. West and east sea breezes, and daytime heating will be the main drivers of diurnal convection. Max temps will be inched 1-2 degrees given the greater daytime insolation. Friday night, some isolated inland convection is possible, but should fade quickly during the evening hours. Lows in the mid to upper 70s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Essentially little change in the thinking with the mid to upper level ridge over the southeast states initially for the weekend, and then shifts slightly south-southeast by Monday and Tuesday as some mid level troughing digs in AL and GA. Weak sfc ridge will be over the region through the weekend, and then build slightly on Monday and Tuesday while shifting more so into north central or central FL on Tuesday. We don`t see much appreciable change in the moisture levels with PWATs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches and given the weak synoptic flow, sea breezes and daytime heating should lead to scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage each day, though some slightly drier air across the eastern zones may limit convection there. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 90s and with the dewpoints of mid 70s, occasional upper 70s, some heat advisory criteria will be possible in some locations each day. Lows mainly in the mid 70s are anticipated. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Squeeze play between a trough just to our north, the Atlantic sea breeze and Gulf Sea Breeze front this afternoon and evening will lead to scattered to widespread convection over the spine of the FL peninsula and extreme SE GA. Convection is already popping and will be most significant in the KOCF, KVQQ and KGNV areas. Will introduce a TEMPO group for most fields as the convection slides inland past them. Due to the convergence near KGNV will go longer there. Otherwise a TEMPO for fog at Cecil Airport tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Prevailing winds have shifted to easterly as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our local waters along and south of a stalled frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate over the Georgia waters by Thursday, with prevailing onshore winds continuing as high pressure weakens off the eastern seaboard. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease across our local waters late this week through Saturday, with prevailing winds then shifting to southwesterly during the weekend ahead of the next weakening frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for beaches through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 74 94 74 / 60 20 30 10 SSI 90 79 90 79 / 40 20 20 0 JAX 93 76 93 75 / 60 20 50 10 SGJ 92 77 91 77 / 50 20 50 10 GNV 93 74 92 74 / 80 40 70 10 OCF 94 75 93 75 / 80 40 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$