Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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631 FXUS62 KJAX 041820 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 220 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The frontal boundary/surface trough is quickly becoming more diffuse this afternoon and looking at radar and visible satellite imagery the Atlantic Sea Breeze front is becoming active with convection firing between the ocean and St Johns River/U.S. 301 in GA. The Gulf sea breeze is still west of U.S. 19 and have delayed activation of that boundary until later this evening. Have tweaked the forecast to reflect the east coast convection slowly moving inland and converging near I-75 later this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Drier air will filter into the coastal zones Friday and linger through Saturday which will limit convection along the I-95 corridor each afternoon and focus t`storms inland where abundant deep moisture will exist. Light steering in place will allow sea breezes to push in from both coasts, but the Atlantic sea breeze will be a bit more dominant. Numerous showers and storms are likely to focus between Highway 301 and the I-75 corridor each afternoon and evening. A slow- moving front will drift in from the northwest Saturday and become another focus for convective activity. No supportive kinematics in place to favor much of any severe threat either afternoon, but strong pulse storms between outflow/cellular mergers may lead to brief, sub- severe downbursts. With deep moisture entrenched across the area, concerns with developing storms will be localized flooding due to hefty rainfall rates (3-5" per hour) and slow movement. Ridging aloft, which has been responsible for the heat wave across portions of the Southern US, will build eastward and overhead into the weekend resulting in slightly warming temps into the mid 90s and heat index between 100-110F each afternoon. Heat Advisories will need to be considered. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 No signs of much considerable changes in this stagnant flow pattern with ample moisture in place to fuel afternoon thunderstorms on the sea breeze each day. A decaying boundary/trough axis will be in place for the first couple of days next week and serve as focus for storm development until it erodes by Wednesday. Another frontal feature appears to work toward the area again by late next week. Hot and humid conditions continue with no relief in sight as the strong ridging aloft remains anchored over the area. Temps and heat index values will stay above climo (average heat index is around 101F for JAX) through the period with heat headlines possible each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will move southward and dissipate over the local waters through the evening. Prevailing onshore winds will continue as high pressure lingers off the eastern seaboard. Storm coverage will decrease Friday through Saturday, with the flow pattern shifting offshore direction during the weekend. A slowing frontal boundary will approach the waters from the north over the weekend and weaken across the waters next week. Rip Currents: Given the enhanced risk on the Holiday, maintained a high risk level for rip currents at NE FL beaches this afternoon. Risk will be moderate Friday. At SE GA beaches, a moderate risk continues. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Above average max/min temps expected through Saturday with the record high mininim not too far off the forecast min temps in the mid 70s. July 5: KGNV: 75/2023 July 6: KJAX: 79/1902 KGNV: 78/1900 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 74 95 76 / 60 10 50 20 SSI 90 78 90 79 / 20 10 10 10 JAX 92 75 95 76 / 40 20 40 10 SGJ 91 77 91 77 / 20 20 30 10 GNV 92 73 93 74 / 60 60 70 10 OCF 93 75 93 75 / 60 50 80 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-035-038-136- 137-140-220-236-237-240-340-522. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...None. AM...None. && $$