711
FXUS64 KJAN 070301
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1001 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Rest of tonight...

A quiet night is on tap. Evening analysis indicates the region
caught between developing longwave trough across a large portion
of the CONUS, while Tropical Storm Beryl is currently moving
northwestward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Our region
remains under deep, tropical moist regime, with frontal zone
stalled across the Gulf Coast states. Moisture plume emanating
from Beryl along this stationary frontal zone will keep dewpoints
high overnight. With scattered rain & storms today, this will
combine with high moist boundary layer to support some stratus &
patchy fog redevelopment overnight. Dense fog looks unlikely. Rain
has winded down & isn`t expected until after daybreak Sunday. No
major changes needed. Lows will be seasonable in the low-mid 70s.
Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Through Tonight:

Anticipated afternoon showers and thunderstorms have developed -
with the bulk of the activity in our forecast area currently
focused in south and southeastern Mississippi coincident with
steepest low-level lapse rates, greatest instability, highest
PWATs, and zone of weak surface convergence. Southwesterly deep-
layer winds shear on the order of 15-25kts should provide at least
some potential to sustain updrafts and organize downdrafts. A few
storms could produce localized damaging wind gusts. The main
limiting factor for rapid updraft growth remains the weak, near-
moist-adiabatic lapse rates through the mid levels in this
tropical air mass. Given the high moisture content of the
atmosphere along the Gulf Coast region (2.2 inches is seasonal max
value for early July), heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms
could also produce localized flash flooding concerns especially in
low lying areas. With some flow and the tropical nature of this
air mass, showers and a storm or two are possible even into the
early morning, though expect chances to taper off overnight. /NF/

Sunday through next Saturday:

The primary influence on our regional weather over the next 4-5
days will be what is currently Tropical Storm Beryl as it moves
toward an anticipated Texas Gulf Coast landfall on Monday and then
becomes absorbed in the westerly flow aloft as it recurves
northeastward Tuesday-Thursday. Regardless of its ultimate
landfalling strength and location, Beryl will be in the process of
becoming post-tropical and weakening as it moves inland through
midweek. This process will bring its envelope of tropical moisture
inland along with a decaying and broadening wind field. While no
tropical headlines are anticipated for our forecast area at this
time, the potential for heavy rainfall and breezy winds will
increase Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. A Limited threat
for flash flooding is highlighted for northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and western Mississippi in our latest
graphics. Sustained wind and gust speeds were also nudged a few
mph higher to reflect the expected wind field surrounding the
weakening Beryl in that same time frame. Further adjustments may
be necessary, but potential errors in timing and location of
Beryl`s remnants 4 to 5 days from now makes confidence too low to
outright load in the more aggressive guidance with this forecast
cycle.

The tropical air mass remaining in place over the Gulf Coast
through midweek will support chances for mainly afternoon showers
and thunderstorms each day, and will increase the level of
dangerous heat concerns whenever and wherever shower activity
holds off until later afternoon hours. Will maintain the current
Limited threat graphic for dangerous heat through tomorrow, though
some portion of southern Mississippi and central Louisiana may
warrant an Elevated threat (and Heat Advisory) Sunday depending on
how rainfall today into tomorrow trends. Will revisit this with
the evening and overnight forecast updates. Even after Beryl`s
remnants are swept away from the region, an upper-level trough
over the central CONUS will keep southwesterly flow over our area
and hot, humid air along the Gulf Coast. Expect summery
conditions to continue into the weekend. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered SHRA & TSRA are ongoing but will gradually wind down
into early this evening. Another round of scattered low stratus,
down MVFR-IFR flight categories & localized fog/BR is expected to
develop Sunday morning near daybreak, lasting through mid to late
morning. It is possible not all sites will be impacted, but those
impacted at southeast sites of PIB & HBG could see the lowest
restrictions. Another round of aftn SHRA & TSRA are psbl at
central to southeast TAF sites into Sun aftn. /DC/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  91  76  94 /  20  60  20  50
Meridian      74  94  73  95 /  20  70  20  60
Vicksburg     74  90  75  93 /  10  60  10  40
Hattiesburg   75  95  76  95 /  30  70  10  50
Natchez       74  90  74  93 /  30  60  10  40
Greenville    73  92  76  94 /  10  30  10  40
Greenwood     72  92  76  94 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/NF/DC