415
FXUS64 KJAN 021454
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
954 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Morning Update: The forecast remains on track, thus no major changes
were made to the package. A very broad area of high pressure will
continue to dominate the South Central CONUS states through
Wednesday. Northerly flow will usher in a drier air mass to
northern/north central portions of the CWA while keeping RH values
limited enough to keep them under any type of advisory criteria.
Throughout the course of the day low level flow will increase as an
easterly wave moves into the area. We can expect to see an influx of
moisture into the southeastern portions of the CWA thus, while
unlikely, a shower and/or a storm will possible in the far
south/southeast this afternoon. With this influx of moisture and
high temps expected to be right around 100, heat indices are
expected to be in excess of 105 in areas south of I-20. The area
configuration of the heat products remains unchanged./KP/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today and Tonight:

The strong upper-level ridge sliding east along the Gulf Coast will
be directly overhead today, resulting in subsidence and weak flow as
prevailing influences across our forecast area. The dry air mass
which brought some refreshingly cooler temperatures to northern and
central parts of the area this morning will be squeezed northward as
an easterly wave moves into the area. The increase in moisture over
southeast/east Mississippi be enough to trigger a few showers or a
storm by late in the afternoon, but capping should be strong enough
to limit most of this potential. POPs were trended drier. Area of
best overlap between heat and moisture favor areas along and south
of the Interstate 20 corridor for a Heat Advisory today (heat index
>105) and northeast LA/southwest MS for an Excessive Heat Warning
(heat index >110). The returning moisture also means low temps
tonight will once again be about 5 degrees warmer than normal. /NF/

Wednesday through next Monday:

High pressure and ridging aloft will continue to gradually build
east through the region, where it`ll remain centered during the
forecast period. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will
likewise slide further east of the CWA, wedging itself into the
region from the east. As this happens, copious amounts of deep
moisture will begin feeding back into the CWA through early next
week. While this`ll increase humidity levels across the forecast
area, it`ll also result in increasing chances for showers and
storms each afternoon. These rain chances will be maintained
across the CWA through the upcoming weekend and into next Monday.
This is due to a frontal boundary dropping south into the region
Friday, where it`s currently advertised to stall and eventually
washout out over the forecast area Saturday through Monday.

The concern for dangerous heat stress will continue across much of
the forecast area Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be
consistent and continue to generally warm into the mid and upper 90s
each day during this timeframe. That, coupled with the
aforementioned increasing moisture over the area will result in
afternoon heat index values climbing above the century mark across
much of the CWA. This will especially be the case Wednesday into
Thursday, when indices will be more in the 105-110 range areawide.
Some relief from the heat will come in the way of scattered to
numerous showers and storms over the CWA Friday, as again a frontal
boundary sinks into the region Friday afternoon.  With this frontal
boundary again forecast to stall and washout over the forecast area
Saturday through Monday, and the better coverage of convection
associated with it, relief from the oppressive heat is expected to
be more widespread across the area during this time. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, however some low stratus bringing MVFR or lower
ceilings could approach the KHBG and KPIB sites just before 12Z
Wednesday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       98  78  95  77 /   0   0  40  10
Meridian     100  76  94  74 /  10  10  50  10
Vicksburg     98  78  97  77 /   0   0  20   0
Hattiesburg  100  78  94  76 /  10  10  70   0
Natchez       99  78  95  76 /   0   0  50   0
Greenville    97  78  98  79 /   0   0  20   0
Greenwood     98  78  97  78 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-048-049-052-
     054>058-061>066-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047-
     053-059-060.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ015-
     016-023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/19/NF