444
FXUS64 KJAN 040248 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
948 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The last of today`s convection was noted on local radars
dissipating over the southwest. This activity should end within
the next hour and no additional convection is expected tonight.
There were numerous areas rain cooled this evening but morning
lows still look on track. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Today through Next Wednesday: Currently, convection is ramping up
as scattered showers and storms are being observed all around the
CWA. This pop-up convection will have very weak deep layer flow
and will allow for the possibility for any storms to move very
slow potentially causing locally high rainfall amounts.We will
continue to see generally scattered storm coverage with the
greatest chances across the SE half. While nothing popping up has
warranted any severe products, instability today is in excess of
4000J/kg of SBCAPE and with temps reaching into the upper 90s, a
storm or two has the possibility to be strong with the main threat
being strong wind gusts. For heat impacts, the "Excessive Heat
Warning" will remain in effect for most areas today with a "Heat
Advisory" in effect elsewhere. High temperatures will be
dangerously hot with temps climbing into the mid to upper 90s
mixed with the high humidity will lead to heat indices to range
from 110-120 degrees.

Synoptically we will continue to see high pressure and ridging aloft
will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS
states where it will remain for the remainder of the period. We can
expect the surface ridge to continue to allow an influx of deep
moisture into the area through next week. This will result in
increased humidity and chances for showers and storms throughout
each afternoon. Storm coverage will be be greatest in the southeast
gradually decreasing to the northwest, especially into this weekend
as some drier air filters in behind the frontal boundary dropping
into Northern MS.

While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High
temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat
indices in excess of 110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress
conditions through at least the July 4th holiday. Thus there will be
need for heat products areawide throughout the week with much of the
area under an "Excessive Heat Warning" Thursday. Areas not under an
"Excessive Heat Warning" will continue to be included in a "Heat
Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided enough relief to
lower high temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory" likely for
some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this potential,
a "Significant" expanded Thursday in the HWO graphics for potential
heat prior to convection, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez
Trace for Thursday and Northwest of the Trace Friday. By this
weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater chances for areawide
rainfall each day through Wednesday. This will likely us a break
from most heat stress and heat related products from the weekend
into early next week as high temps will dip into the lower 90s to
upper 80s. Anomalous moisture and southwesterly flow could bring
some localized heavy rain potential during portions of the weekend
into early next week but confidence is too low to introduce in the
HWO graphics at this time./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

TSRA wl affect HEZ until after 02Z. SHRA/TSRA will come in vcty of
cntrl MS TAFs as well. Away from TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail
until after 12Z. After 12Z MVFR cigs wl be psbl cntrl and south.
These conditions wl improve by 16Z and a greater coverage of aftn
TSRA wl move across the area with the greatest coverage expected
in the se. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  93  78  91 /  10  60  10  80
Meridian      75  94  75  93 /  10  70  10  80
Vicksburg     78  95  78  92 /  10  40  10  70
Hattiesburg   77  94  78  94 /  10  80  10  70
Natchez       76  93  77  92 /  20  50  10  60
Greenville    79  96  79  93 /   0  30  20  70
Greenwood     78  96  78  92 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ018-019-025>030-032-034>037-040>043-047-048-053-054-059-
     060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ031-033-038-
     039-044>046-049>052-055>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/KP/22