569
FXUS64 KJAN 070946
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
446 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today through tonight: A weak frontal boundary continues to focus
greater moisture over southern portions of the forecast area as of
early this morning, but the front and moisture will lift north
later today into tonight to as southerly flow increases downwind
of an approaching upper level trough. As a result, showers and
storms that develop during peak heating should have greater
coverage over the forecast area than yesterday. In addition,
there continues to be a limited threat for dangerous heat, and no
adjustments were needed for the current heat graphic. Storms are
expected to diminish early this evening with loss of heating, and
a mostly quiet weather night is in store thereafter. /EC/

Monday through Next Saturday night: TC Beryl will be the main
weather influence through early this week as it makes landfall
along the Texas Gulf Coast Monday and then weakens as it tracks
northeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley region. By late
Monday into Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl should make the
closest pass to the forecast area, and this is when low level
shear will be greatest. SPC has included a marginal risk for
severe storms with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few brief
tornadoes over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Because of drier air
that is forecast to wrap around the system, WPC has cut back
significantly on QPF for our area, but will maintain the limited
flooding threat until this trend becomes definitive. As we go
later into the week, the upper level trough will become more
centered over our region, and this will help keep moist and
unstable air around for continued diurnal convective rainfall
coverage. It does appear that the heat may return to greater
intensity by the time we start next weekend. /EC/KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Mainly VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through
the forecast period. Exceptions will be associated with areas of
sub VFR stratus that develop through early morning and persist
until mid morning, mainly over southeast half of the area. There
may be considerable coverage of SHRA/TS this afternoon, also
mainly over the southeast half of the area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  75  95  75 /  60  20  40  20
Meridian      94  73  96  73 /  70  30  50  20
Vicksburg     91  75  94  75 /  50  20  30  30
Hattiesburg   96  75  97  77 /  50  30  40  20
Natchez       92  75  94  76 /  50  30  40  30
Greenville    93  76  93  75 /  20  20  40  40
Greenwood     93  76  95  75 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/KP/EC