465
FXUS64 KJAN 031950
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
250 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Today through Next Wednesday:

Currently, convection is ramping up as scattered showers and storms
are being observed all around the CWA. This pop-up convection will
have very weak deep layer flow and will allow for the possibility
for any storms to move very slow potentially causing locally high
rainfall amounts.We will continue to see generally scattered storm
coverage with the greatest chances across the SE half. While nothing
popping up has warranted any severe products, instability today is
in excess of 4000J/kg of SBCAPE and with temps reaching into the
upper 90s, a storm or two has the possibility to be strong with the
main threat being strong wind gusts. For heat impacts, the
"Excessive Heat Warning" will remain in effect for most areas today
with a "Heat Advisory" in effect elsewhere. High temperatures will
be dangerously hot with temps climbing into the mid to upper 90s
mixed with the high humidity will lead to heat indices to range from
110-120 degrees.

Synoptically we will continue to see high pressure and ridging aloft
will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS
states where it will remain for the remainder of the period. We can
expect the surface ridge to continue to allow an influx of deep
moisture into the area through next week. This will result in
increased humidity and chances for showers and storms throughout
each afternoon. Storm coverage will be be greatest in the southeast
gradually decreasing to the northwest, especially into this weekend
as some drier air filters in behind the frontal boundary dropping
into Northern MS.

While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High
temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat
indices in excess of 110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress
conditions through at least the July 4th holiday. Thus there will be
need for heat products areawide throughout the week with much of the
area under an "Excessive Heat Warning" Thursday. Areas not under an
"Excessive Heat Warning" will continue to be included in a "Heat
Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided enough relief to
lower high temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory" likely for
some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this potential,
a "Significant" expanded Thursday in the HWO graphics for potential
heat prior to convection, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez
Trace for Thursday and Northwest of the Trace Friday. By this
weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater chances for areawide
rainfall each day through Wednesday. This will likely us a break
from most heat stress and heat related products from the weekend
into early next week as high temps will dip into the lower 90s to
upper 80s. Anomalous moisture and southwesterly flow could bring
some localized heavy rain potential during portions of the weekend
into early next week but confidence is too low to introduce in the
HWO graphics at this time./KP/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR flight conditions across the area for the start of the TAF
period. Shower/thunderstorm potential will increase this afternoon
and into the early evening. Southeasterly winds near 6kts are
expected. Near 08-09Z Thursday, patchy fog will be possible
especially near central and southern TAF sites, reducing flight
conditions to MVFR/possible IFR. Any developed fog will diminish
after sunrise, bringing flight conditions to VFR. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  93  78  91 /  20  60  10  80
Meridian      75  94  75  93 /  10  70  10  80
Vicksburg     78  95  78  92 /  20  40  10  70
Hattiesburg   77  94  78  94 /  20  80  10  70
Natchez       76  93  77  92 /  30  50  10  60
Greenville    79  96  79  93 /   0  30  20  70
Greenwood     78  96  78  92 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-
     019-025>045-047>050-053>056-059>065-072.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ018-019-025>030-032-034>037-040>043-047-048-053-054-059-
     060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ031-033-038-
     039-044>046-049>052-055>058-061>066-072>074.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ046-051-052-057-
     058-066-073-074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-
     075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

KP/DC/SW