Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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964 FXUS63 KIWX 060708 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 308 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and less humid today, but more seasonable for Sunday. Mostly dry weather is in place for the weekend. - More seasonable temperatures are in store for the bulk of the work week, but the warmest highs are forecast for Monday with 90 degrees possible for areas south of US-24. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for later Monday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Much cooler and drier air moves in behind Friday`s cold front and that helps to reduce humidity back to more comfortable levels with dew points in the 60s. However, with the jet stream still draped across the lower Great Lakes, various maximums of vorticity traverse the southern tear drop of Lake Michigan and provide opportunities for weak lift and convergence, and when paired with small areas of moisture and cooler low level temperatures, sprinkles could result. This likely occurs along and west of US-31 and south of the Toll Road today, but generally north of Winamac. There may be a period between late morning and some time this afternoon where it wanes, but there is some confidence in another period of sprinkles later this afternoon into the early evening just south of the aforementioned area. Areas farther east are removed from the better convergence and temperatures in the low to mid levels are slightly warmer and so they are expected to be drier. In accordance with the cooler temperatures in the atmosphere, surface temperatures will struggle to exceed 80 degrees today. Saturday evening, high pressure nudges in, and then escapes the area Sunday night. As such, expect a dry Sunday. Some lighter warm advection comes in during the afternoon Sunday and that will help high temperatures return to seasonable temperatures, in the 80s. Then, between Sunday night and Monday afternoon, a mid level trough edges closer to the region from the Northern Plains making it more possible for dying thunderstorms, likely just in the form of showers, to traverse the Lake MI-adjacent counties. Will continue to carry times of slight PoPs during this period. Dew points are expected to increase back into the 60s and a few areas of 70 degree dew points will also be possible as a better connection to the Gulf of Mexico becomes established on Monday. Increased low level theta-e will also contribute to near-90s high temperatures. With the trough now in a favorable position to provide increased precipitation Monday evening/night in a similar setup to a predecessor rain event (PRE) out ahead of a boundary moving through, have allowed for chance PoPs later Monday through Tuesday. Any precipitation that does form will have the opportunity to become heavy with some instability to tap into and with how moist the low levels are. 850 mb Tds surpass 10C and sfc dew points will at least be in the mid to upper 60s. The aforementioned boundary may stall in the vicinity of US-24 Tuesday night/Wednesday providing areas north of there with drier weather, but cannot totally rule out some chance for precip south of there. Models have some uncertainty moving forward with how quickly the trough can pick and throw the remnants of Beryl to the eastern seaboard between Wednesday and the end of the week. However, still have some confidence in at least a slight chance for afternoon pop up showers/storms Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoons. Highs are expected to be right around seasonable during this time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 153 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the TAF sites as we deal with the last gasp from our exiting low pressure system. An upper level trough will swing through this morning, which are likely bring some MVFR ceilings and sprinkles to KSBN between 11-18z. There could be some MVFR ceilings at KFWA between 15-18z today associated with the same trough, however I am less confident in the persistence as as much of the guidance keeps things around 3000 feet. I did a tempo for 2500 ft for now and left out a mention of showers as the wave appears to weaken and lift northeastward through the day. Light winds ranging from SW to NW today behind the trough, then the upper level ridge keeps us dry and VFR from the afternoon onwards. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...MCD