121
FXUS63 KIWX 032224
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
624 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains a low chance for showers into this evening,
  mainly along the US 24 corridor.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
  Thursday into Friday, best chances (40-60%) late Thursday
  night into Friday. Warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s.

- Dry conditions and near normal temperatures for the weekend.
  Near normal temperatures look to stick around for much of next
  week (highs mid 80s, lows mid 60s) with sporadic, low chances
  for rain/storms. The best chances for rain/storms will be on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Warm and humid conditions have returned as a warm front lifted north
through the area overnight. A weak cold front is currently entering
our area, with showers/storms possibly developing out ahead of it
this afternoon and early evening. There is a Marginal Risk for
severe weather (level 1 of 5) along and south of US 24. A few storms
could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain
as the primary threats. Storm coverage should be isolated to
scattered at best. I would not be surprised if SPC chooses to
pull the Marginal Risk entirely from our area as there is very
low confidence in storms reaching severe criteria. Model
guidance continues to trend with less instability (500-1000
MLCAPE) this afternoon, and low/mid level lapse rates are sub-
par amidst only 20 to 30 knots of 0-6 km shear to work with. If
the RAP is correct, there also could be an EML to work with this
afternoon that caps any storm development.

There are additional chances for rain/storms for the Fourth of July
and again Friday. As a surface low lifts northeast across Missouri
Thursday evening, the attendant warm front will lift north through
our area. This could result in some rain/storm chances for Thursday
evening, although I`ve kept the highest chances (30-40%) confined to
along and south of US 30 for now. These PoPs will likely need
adjusting in subsequent forecast updates as we get more
certainty as to how far north the warm front gets. Should the
boundary stall across our area, this would lead to lingering
showers/clouds overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Friday`s
rain/storm chances are conditional to what happens Thursday;
should any clearing occur Friday morning, there would be chances
for rain/storms to redevelop again late morning through the
afternoon on Friday along a cold front. I would not be surprised
if SPC adds us into a Marginal Risk on Friday given the
favorable parameters for severe weather, especially on the NAM
and NAMNST. Soundings midday Friday from the NAMNST depict an
unstable environment with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 40 kts of shear,
and moderately steep low and mid level lapse rates.

For the weekend, dry conditions, comfortable humidity, and cooler
temperatures return! Saturday will be the cooler day of the weekend
with highs in the mid 70s. Next week, the latest CPC outlook has
near normal temperatures favored (which would mean highs in the low
80s, lows in the mid 60s), which is somewhat unusual for mid
July. There has been a pretty consistent signal in model
guidance the past few days that next week will be near normal
for temperatures with sporadic, low chances for rain/storms.
There are no consistent signals for high heat to return until
possibly 10 to 14 days from now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Weak cool front will wash out into KFWA tonight into tomorrow. Low
chances for an isolated shower remains in the forecast into this
evening here, with KSBN dry and mainly clear north of the boundary.
Additional low chances for showers then arrive late Thursday
morning into Thursday afternoon on the northern fringes of a
convectively aided shortwave. Mainly VFR with light winds
otherwise, though will have to watch for patchy fog/stratus
development at KFWA toward daybreak given moist low levels and
light winds.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Steinwedel