399
FXUS63 KIWX 051924
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms into this
  evening, mainly north of US-30. Locally heavy rain and gusty
  winds remain possible.

- Becoming less humid for the weekend with minimal, if any,
  chances for precipitation.

- More seasonable temperatures return Sunday into next week with
  showers and storms possible starting later Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Upper level low, centered over SW Wisconsin, will continue to drift
east and eventually northeast and begin to fill as 250 mb jet streak
exits and overall flow aloft begins to weaken. At the surface, a
cold front had slowed considerably, just now entering western
portions of IN with extensive cloud cover and an area of lighter
showers well in advance of it. Skies generally cleared back across
much of IL, but cu has started pop with convective temps around 80
being reached. Instability and mid level lapse rates remain rather
low and despite the infringement of the upper level energy little in
the way of new development has been noted in the cu field. Strongest
development has been across central Lower MI or further south into
southern IN/OH. Vis sat showing a line of enhanced cu from the
Michigan City area NNE to west of GRR. One shower did manage to
develop near Michigan City with little overall development
upwards. The initial cell has weakened, but another was trying
to develop on the SW flank of the original cell. CAMs have
handled the convection rather poorly today depicting greater
coverage east including some storms, but all that exists is a
weakening area of rain. If any storm can gain some height, a
narrow axis of 1000 J/KG DCAPE exists along the front which
could bring an isolated strong to locally severe gust. However,
have a lot of concerns that any of convection will be able to
attain those levels (as depicted by the newly developed
showers). SPC maintained the marginal risk along/east of IN-13
but suspect the greatest risk will remain well north. SWOMCD
also issued recently for mainly Lower MI with additional
details.

A dry holiday weekend appears more and more likely for most, if
not all of the area. A weak disturbance may move in from the
southwest on Saturday, but with moisture removed, should
struggle to produce any precip. While I suspect little in the
way of measurable precip will occur, maintained a slgt chc in
far NW areas Sat AM. Temperature wise, slightly below normal
highs expected Saturday (mid to upper 70s) with more seasonable
80s Sunday as upper level heights begin to temporarily increase.
Dewpoints will remain at comfortable levels.

Somewhat deeper trough approaches to start the new work week
with chances for showers and storms arriving possibly as early
as Monday afternoon in the NW, but moreso Monday night into
Tuesday. Thereafter, a series of troughs keep digging into the
Great Lakes, but not overly deep or "cold" as 500 mb heights are
580 dm or higher for the remainder of the forecast period.
Better moisture remains to the south so might not see any large
chances for showers and storms, but something to watch in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Some light showers continue early this afternoon across
northeast Indiana in pre-frontal forcing zone. Best low level
moisture resides in this pre-frontal forcing region, and deeper
moisture should be exiting to the east over the next few hours.
Surface cool front working in from northeast Illinois will
likely become active with isolated showers and a few storms as
primary upper trough interacts with this front. Instability is
somewhat on the limited side however, which leads to low
confidence in coverage of thunder with this front. While thunder
is possible for a brief time later this afternoon at terminals,
point probabilities and confidence are increasingly on the low
side given instability limitations. Threat of showers should end
at KFWA after 23 or 00Z. Some brief MVFR cigs are possible at
KFWA/KSBN through around 20Z, but otherwise mainly VFR
conditions expected through remainder of afternoon into the
evening.

Primary upper level low center will track across the northern
Great Lakes tonight, but fairly strong low level cold advection
will overspread the southern Great Lakes. Some cold advection
induced stratocu is expected, particularly across KSBN area late
tonight into Saturday morning. Lower confidence exists at KFWA
regarding Saturday morning low clouds as better diurnal mixing
may begin by expected time of arrival.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili