660
FXUS63 KIWX 052336
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
736 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms diminish by sunset.

- Becoming less humid for the weekend with minimal, if any,
  chances for precipitation.

- More seasonable temperatures return Sunday into next week with
  showers and storms possible starting later Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Upper level low, centered over SW Wisconsin, will continue to drift
east and eventually northeast and begin to fill as 250 mb jet streak
exits and overall flow aloft begins to weaken. At the surface, a
cold front had slowed considerably, just now entering western
portions of IN with extensive cloud cover and an area of lighter
showers well in advance of it. Skies generally cleared back across
much of IL, but cu has started pop with convective temps around 80
being reached. Instability and mid level lapse rates remain rather
low and despite the infringement of the upper level energy little in
the way of new development has been noted in the cu field. Strongest
development has been across central Lower MI or further south into
southern IN/OH. Vis sat showing a line of enhanced cu from the
Michigan City area NNE to west of GRR. One shower did manage to
develop near Michigan City with little overall development
upwards. The initial cell has weakened, but another was trying
to develop on the SW flank of the original cell. CAMs have
handled the convection rather poorly today depicting greater
coverage east including some storms, but all that exists is a
weakening area of rain. If any storm can gain some height, a
narrow axis of 1000 J/KG DCAPE exists along the front which
could bring an isolated strong to locally severe gust. However,
have a lot of concerns that any of convection will be able to
attain those levels (as depicted by the newly developed
showers). SPC maintained the marginal risk along/east of IN-13
but suspect the greatest risk will remain well north. SWOMCD
also issued recently for mainly Lower MI with additional
details.

A dry holiday weekend appears more and more likely for most, if
not all of the area. A weak disturbance may move in from the
southwest on Saturday, but with moisture removed, should
struggle to produce any precip. While I suspect little in the
way of measurable precip will occur, maintained a slgt chc in
far NW areas Sat AM. Temperature wise, slightly below normal
highs expected Saturday (mid to upper 70s) with more seasonable
80s Sunday as upper level heights begin to temporarily increase.
Dewpoints will remain at comfortable levels.

Somewhat deeper trough approaches to start the new work week
with chances for showers and storms arriving possibly as early
as Monday afternoon in the NW, but moreso Monday night into
Tuesday. Thereafter, a series of troughs keep digging into the
Great Lakes, but not overly deep or "cold" as 500 mb heights are
580 dm or higher for the remainder of the forecast period.
Better moisture remains to the south so might not see any large
chances for showers and storms, but something to watch in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated thunderstorms on radar as of this writing will steer
clear of the terminals. A cold front has cleared KSBN and has
yet to arrive at KFWA, but will do so likely within the next 90
minutes or so. Pockets of stratus are noted upstream and as the
previous forecaster noted, cold air advection stratus is
anticipated overnight. Time-height cross sections are very
soupy, especially at KSBN where stratus could linger well into
the afternoon. Otherwise, wind at or below 10 knots through the
TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Brown