062
FXUS63 KIND 060635
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as humid Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures.

- Rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Surface analysis early this morning shows a strong and large area of
high pressure centered over OK and KS. This strong high extended its
influence from the high and northern plains to Indiana and the Ohio
Valley. Water vapor imagery showed a broad trough in place across
the CONUS, with subsidence in place over IL and Indiana. GOES16
shows clear skies over Indiana, but some high cloud was found over
southern IL and SE MO. These clouds were dissipating upon approach
as they approached the subsidence over Central Indiana.

Today and Tonight...

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight. The large surface high
is expected to the push east and continue to dominate the weather
across Central Indiana. The broad upper trough aloft will also
remain in place.  This will lead to continued weak westerly lower
level flow and Pacific flow aloft. Forecast soundings today and
tonight show a dry column, and the strong high at the surface is
indicative of continued ongoing subsidence.

Forecast soundings this afternoon suggest convective temperatures
will be reached leading to SCT-BKN CU development during the peak
heating hours. After peak heating is lost, a dry column is shown by
the models which should lead to clear skies overnight. Meanwhile
tonight the center of the strong surface high will reach Indiana and
Ohio. Thus a partly cloudy day and mostly clear night will be
expected.

Weak westerly winds and minimal temperature advection will lead to
seasonal temperatures, with today`s highs in the middle 80s and
tonight`s lows in the low to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Sunday Through Tuesday.

The warming trend will continue into Monday as the broad high
pressure that had been in place through the early weekend gradually
begins to break down ahead of the next rain producing system. Plenty
of sun combined  will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid to
upper 80s.  With the high pressure nearly overhead, there will be
little relief in terms of a breeze with near calm winds. There
should be at least some diurnal cu during the mid to late afternoon
hours which may provide some relief but with dewpoints only in the
mid 60s, the overall heat threat is minimal.

A broad trough will slowly exit the Central Plains late Monday night
with rain likely late Monday evening through Tuesday. Models are
suggesting a localized area of convergence along a weak cold front
where higher precipitation amounts are likely, but there remains
quite a bit of model spread as to where exactly that settles. Models
have come into better agreement that the higher amounts should
remain to the northwest of the forecast area into northern Illinois,
but will continue to monitor the threat for heavy rain in the coming
days.

Wednesday Through Friday.

Focus after Tuesday will be on a combination of a stalled front
across the Ohio River and tropical moisture from the remnants of
Hurricane  Beryl.  Models have been trending a more northerly track
for the hurricane and a quicker ingestion into the jet stream which
could bring remnant moisture to southern Indiana as early as
Wednesday. This moisture then would combine with the stalled front
to create localized heavy rain with the potential of 2-3 inches of
rain between Wednesday and Thursday, but that threat looks to mainly
be across northern Kentucky and far southern Indiana.

There are a few ensemble members that bring heavier rain into south
central Indiana, but those appear to still be outliers. Will keep
low POPs for mid to late week across central Indiana, but otherwise
will continue to monitor trends for any more of a northerly track
which could lead to greater impacts for the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Impacts:

- VFR conditions are expected.

Discussion:

High pressure over the Central Plains will be expanding across
Central Indiana overnight and through Saturday. This will result in
clear skies overnight. Forecast soundings suggest diurnal cu
development on Saturday. Thus some BKN VFR cigs have been included
through the peak heating hours of the day. W/NW winds will be near
10kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Puma