626
FXUS63 KIND 191343
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant into this weekend
- Seasonable warmth and increasing humidity returns by late this
  weekend
- Chances for rain/t-storms and increasing clouds next week may help
  keep temperatures slightly below normal

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Forecast is in good shape this morning. Other than some thin smoke
aloft and a few low clouds near the southern forecast area, skies
were clear. Temperatures were warming nicely with the sunshine.

Some cumulus will pop up today and perhaps a few high clouds will
also drift across the area. Sunshine and drier air will boost
temperatures  into the upper 70s and lower 80s, which are below
normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Comfortable mid July morning in progress as high pressure blankets
the region. With clear skies and light winds early this morning...
06Z temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

Tranquil weather is expected through tonight as high pressure
remains the dominant influence across the Ohio Valley. Patchy fog is
likely to form through the predawn hours...especially over the
Wabash Valley where slightly higher dewpoints in the upper 50s were
present. Any fog will burn off quickly after daybreak setting the
stage for another spectacular day.

The center of the high will linger across the lower Great Lakes and
maintain a dry northeast flow through the boundary layer. Cloud
coverage will be lower this afternoon than Thursday...but model
soundings are favorable for at least some diurnal cu formation
beneath a broad area of dry air and subsidence within the mid
levels. Any cu will diminish near sunset tonight with mostly clear
skies overnight. There is potential for some thin cirrus to lift
north into parts of the area as deeper moisture advects into the
Tennessee Valley and eastern half of Kentucky by early Saturday.

Temps...a recovery in 850mb temps from Thursday supports a warmer
day but fantastic by mid July standards. Low level thermals suggest
highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s from north to south with
low humidity levels. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper
50s over much of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Most guidance shows upper ridging remaining dominant across the
western CONUS during the extended period with troughing further
east. Initially at the surface, high pressure centered over the
region will continue to provide dry conditions through the weekend.
Weak SW flow aloft combined with slightly deeper mixing every day
should lead to a gradual moderation of temperatures. Look for highs
to return to near seasonal by the end of the weekend.

High pressure is expected to weaken late Sunday into Monday allowing
for deeper moisture to return northward. This will lead to
increasing humidity and increasing chances for precipitation. The
main uncertainty for rain chances lies in how much forcing will be
present next week. Models generally show a few upper level impulses
traversing the region next week though there are some differences
regarding the timing, location, and intensity of these features.
Limited confidence in exact details remains for these reasons.

Despite the uncertainties, there is a general signal in guidance for
subtle synoptic forcing as a weak upper low slowly moves across the
area early-middle of next week. This combined with deeper moisture
return supports a more unsettled pattern. Given the lack of greater
forcing from the upper low, diurnal heating of an anomalously moist
environment should help provide greater coverage of convection
during the afternoon or early evening hours. Increasing clouds and
rain chances could keep temperatures slightly below normal for much
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 558 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Impacts

- None

Discussion:

Skies were clear this morning under high pressure. Cannot rule out
scattered diurnal cu for the afternoon but skies should be mostly
sunny overall. As moisture advects into eastern Kentucky
tonight...some thin cirrus may lift into parts of the area. Expect
northeast winds less than 10 kts through the forecast period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan