157
FXUS63 KILX 030745
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be some strong to severe thunderstorm potential
  (20-40%chance) south of I-70 today, along with locally heavy
  rainfall.

- Independence Day will be a bit cooler than normal, though that
  will be offset by muggy 70s dew points. Though there are 50-60%
  POPs through the day, the whole day won`t be rainy. However,
  firework festivities may be impacted.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Currently, there is some stratiform rain across areas west of I-55.
This should start to subside in the coming hours. Based on radar
estimates, some areas in our forecast area, west of the Illinois
River, have received upwards of 2 inches.

As the front is expected to exit the SE CWA in the mid to late
afternoon today, storms may refire along the front. These storms
also have the potential to have strong, gusty winds but the CAMs
continue to indicate that this new CI will be just south/east of the
forecast area. The furthest northern extent showers/t`storms could
go would be along and south of I-72. Chances of these showers and
thunderstorms occuring in our CWA is 20-40 percent.

Independence Day, tomorrow, will be slightly cooler than normal
which would be great for outdoor celebrations, but have dewpoints in
the mid 70s. There are still several chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the day. There is decent MUCAPE south of I-72
this day (1000-2000 J/kg) and DCAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg)
supportive of strong wind gusts in the stronger cells that develop.
The morning into afternoon has 50-70% POPs (increasing with southern
CWA extent) being primarily scattered across central and
southeastern Illinois. The whole day won`t be a washout, there is
some break in the activity throughout the afternoon into early
evening. From 00-06z Friday (7pm Thurs-1am Fri), when firework
displays are set to take place, there is a 30-60% chance of new
development. The HRRR/NAMNest are showing the redevelopment not
moving into central and southeastern Illinois until after 03z Friday
(10pm Thursday). However, the location of these cells will be
difficult to know this early since they look to be scattered.

Starting Friday, a brief ridging will set up ahead of the next
system that will bring POPs into the area again Sunday. Temperatures
through the weekend will be pleasant, with highs in the low to mid
80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will have the coolest
highs (upper 70s to mid 80s) out of the extended period.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually work eastward across the
central IL terminals overnight, with the higher chances of
thunderstorms from KPIA-KDEC southward. As such, have included a
tempo group for MVFR vsbys and cigs in TSRA at KPIA, KSPI, and
KDEC overnight. Otherwise, only included VCTS/VCSH to the north.
Storms may re-develop after 18Z, but this looks likely to take
place SE of a KDEC-KCMI line. Expect localized MVFR vsbys and
cigs in thunderstorms. A period of MVFR cigs can be expected for
several hours behind the storms, but VFR conditions should return
by 16Z-19Z as cigs lift and low clouds start to dissipate.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 01Z.
Winds S 8-12 kts, shifting to W after thunderstorms pass through.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$