905
FXUS61 KILN 071938
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
338 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through Monday. A weakening front
will move into the area late Monday night and Tuesday. The
remnants of Beryl will track northeast across the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Some thin
cirrus may start to spread in from the southwest towards
daybreak. Winds will be light and lows will be in the lower to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry airmass will remain in place as high pressure centered off
to the east keeps its influence across the region. A northern
stream short wave will shear out to the northeast across the
Great Lakes Monday night. This may allow a weakening front to
slide into the area. But low level moisture will still be meager
and forcing quite weak, so it will remain dry with an increase
in high and perhaps mid clouds. Warming trend will continue with
highs generally in the lower 90s and lows ranging from the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remnants of Beryl and the interaction with the trough will be
the main story for the first few days of the long term time period.
Moisture will start to move into the area during the day on Tuesday
and then overspread the region Tuesday night.  There is still some
variability with where exactly the center of the low will track,
however models are coming more in line with a solution that would
bring measurable rain to the region.  Details still have to be
resolved with low track to fully determine whether any locations
will have a flood threat.  There is at least some potential though
that isolated flooding could be a possibility. The greatest chance
for thunder will be during the day on Wednesday. Models are in better
agreement with when precipitation will exit the region and most of
the precipitation will be east of the area by Thursday evening.

Temperatures during this time frame Tuesday through Thursday will be
a little tricky given dependence on low track and subsequent
precipitation.  In general expect lower temperatures northwest of
Interstate 71 and warmer temperatures southeast.

There is not a clear signal then for additional precipitation until
late Sunday.  These days of dry conditions will allow for high
temperatures in the 80s to around 90 degrees.  Lows will generally
be in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered cumulus will diminish towards 00Z with loss of
heating. Some localized visibility restrictions will likely
develop at KLUK overnight. A few cumulus will develop again late
in the period. Winds will be light and will veer over time.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...