Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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545 FXUS61 KILN 020024 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 824 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift off to the east tonight through Tuesday. This will lead to a return to summer-like conditions along with chances for thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon will shift off to the east tonight as mid level ridging begins to build in from the southwest. Some weak mid level energy moving over the ridge will lead to high level cloudiness at times tonight. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool with overnight lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The surface high pressure will continue to push east through the day on Tuesday as mid level ridging shifts slowly east across the southeast US. Some high level clouds will again be possible at times on Tuesday. In developing return flow across the area through the day on Tuesday, afternoon highs will push into the mid to upper 80s. We will also see surface dewpoints begin to increase from the south through the day. Some mid level energy moving into the ridge will lead to an increase in mid and high level clouds later Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A hot, humid, and generally unsettled synoptic setup will be in place over the Ohio Valley from Wednesday through at least Friday. For Wednesday, moderately strong southerly flow should allow temperatures to reach into the 90s thanks to a low passing well to the north. The first half of the day should be dry, but a chance for showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. If storms do develop, some could be strong since dynamics will be enhanced by the low up in Canada. Thursday and Friday may feature slightly moderated temperatures and weaker southerly flow with the low moving further away from the Ohio Valley. Afternoon showers and storms will be possible each afternoon with diurnal instability in place. On Friday night, a weak cold front is forecast to move in from the west. High pressure builds in behind the front for the weekend helping to cool temperatures slightly and lower afternoon rain chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes overnight through Tuesday. With this dry airmass in place only expect some high level clouds with scattered cumulus clouds Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...AR