Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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766 FXUS61 KILN 081749 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist across the area today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures. A chance for precipitation will return as a weakening front approaches the area late tonight and Tuesday. Moisture from the remnants of Beryl will track northeast across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night providing an increased threat for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Few to scattered cumulus will persist through the afternoon. Meanwhile high clouds will continue to stream northeast. Still expecting temperatures to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A northern stream short wave will shear out to the northeast across the Great Lakes tonight. Mid and high level clouds will increase but with dry low levels any pcpn will hold off until Tuesday. Low temperatures to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Remnants of Beryl in the form of a southern stream wave and surface low to eject northeast from the Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley by Tuesday evening. Moisture to increase ahead of this system with PWATs approaching 2 inches across the southwest late in the day. Shower and thunderstorm chances to increase from the southwest in the afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The remnants of Beryl will approach the Ohio Valley on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Rain is likely to arrive from the southwest on Tuesday night and overspread northeast as the closed low and an upper level trough move in. While Beryl takes on more extratropical characteristics on Wednesday, a surface cold front will be accelerated in from the west by the closed surface low. Overall rain chances peak on Wednesday when the strongest forcing and PWATs overlap east/northeast of the surface low. Rain chances then dropoff Wednesday night into Thursday behind the cold front and upper level forcing. Currently, overall flood concerns remain on the lower side since the remnants of Beryl are likely to be progressive. Dry conditions and southerly flow return by Friday which will lead to increasing heat and humidity into the weekend. Forecast highs reach back into the upper 80s and low 90s by Saturday. Afternoon rain chances may also increase this weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cumulus across the region will dissipate towards 00Z with the loss of heating. This will leave just high and mid clouds streaming across the area through the rest of the forecast period. Higher clouds may be thin enough to allow for some visibility restrictions to develop at KLUK overnight, although confidence in this occurrence is only medium. Otherwise VFR continues to prevail. Winds will remain light. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...