314
FXUS61 KILN 071732
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend across the region through
Monday, keeping the area dry. Moisture from the remnants of
Beryl will get drawn into the region toward the middle of the
week bringing increased chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered cumulus will persist through the afternoon. Temperatures
will still rise a few more degrees before reaching the high for
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Southwesterly mid level flow tonight into Monday. Cumulus clouds
will dissipate with the loss of heating with only some thin
high level clouds across the area tonight. Some valley fog will
again be possible tonight. Milder temperatures with lows from
the lower 60s in the cooler locations to the mid/upper 60s in
the cities.

High level clouds increase as we head into Monday afternoon.
Warm up to continue with highs in the upper 80s to the lower
90s. Maximum heat indices look to top out mainly in the mid 90s
with a few locations reaching the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Monday night will remain dry as high pressure continues moving east
of the Ohio Valley. Upper level clouds may start to build as the
remnants of Beryl start approaching from the southwest. Forecast
lows remain mild in the lower 70s.

For Tuesday through Wednesday night, rain chances increase over
the Ohio Valley since the remnants of Beryl are now forecast to
move into or close to the Ohio Valley. Latest ensemble guidance
also suggests that a closed surface low may persist as Beryl
undergoes extratropical transition as the storm moves poleward.
The new extratropical cyclone is looking more likely to phase
with an upper level trough and surface cold front moving in from
the northwest. High PWATs in combination with strong forcing
may result in locally heavy rain. Rain chances diminish by
Thursday or Thursday night once the cold front attached to the
low pushes east of the Ohio Valley.

Cooler, drier air returns by the end of the workweek. Shower and
storm chances may sneak back into the forecast by the weekend when
temperatures and moisture increase back up.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered cumulus will diminish towards 00Z with loss of
heating. Some localized visibility restrictions will likely
develop at KLUK overnight. A few cumulus will develop again late
in the period. Winds will be light and will veer over time.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...