961
FXUS61 KILN 071412
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1012 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend across the region through
Monday, keeping the area dry. Moisture from the remnants of
Beryl will get drawn into the region toward the middle of the
week bringing increased chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Still expecting few to scattered cumulus to develop through the
day. Forecast temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Southwesterly mid level flow tonight into Monday. Cumulus clouds
will dissipate with the loss of heating with only some thin
high level clouds across the area tonight. Some valley fog will
again be possible tonight. Milder temperatures with lows from
the lower 60s in the cooler locations to the mid/upper 60s in
the cities.

High level clouds increase as we head into Monday afternoon.
Warm up to continue with highs in the upper 80s to the lower
90s. Maximum heat indices look to top out mainly in the mid 90s
with a few locations reaching the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday night will remain dry as high pressure continues moving east
of the Ohio Valley. Upper level clouds may start to build as the
remnants of Beryl start approaching from the southwest. Forecast
lows remain mild in the lower 70s.

For Tuesday through Wednesday night, rain chances increase over the
Ohio Valley since the remnants of Beryl are now forecast to move
into or close to the Ohio Valley. Latest ensemble guidance also
suggests that a closed surface low may persist as Beryl
undergoes extratropical transition as the storm moves poleward.
The new extratropical cyclone is looking more likely to phase
with an upper level trough and surface cold front moving in from
the northwest. High PWATs in combination with strong forcing
may result in locally heavy rain. Rain chances diminish by
Thursday or Thursday night once the cold front attached to the
low pushes east of the Ohio Valley.

Cooler, drier air returns by the end of the workweek. Shower and
storm chances may sneak back into the forecast by the weekend when
temperatures and moisture increase back up.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure overhead will offer light winds and mostly
clear skies overnight. Some scattered cumulus cloud development
will occur this afternoon. These diurnally driven clouds will
dissipate early this evening leaving only some high level
clouds. Some fog development is likely again tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR