Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
114 FXUS61 KILN 050000 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As the threat along the south decreases, attention will shift to an increasing threat across eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and southward toward the greater Cincinnati area. A weak surface low will help to trigger an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms due to the increased convergence within the cyclonic flow. Depending on how much instability is available, updrafts may be strong enough to take advantage of the strengthening deep layer flow. This would support a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two with the more organized storms. Even if the severe weather threat ultimately ends up lower, there will still be decent coverage in shower and storms, potentially lingering into the late evening hours. Can`t rule out some locally heavy rainfall given the moisture rich environment. Behind the weak low pressure, drier conditions are expected through the overnight with the primary frontal boundary still well off the west. This will finally sweep through the area late Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day with the passage of the front moving through during the evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the day. As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening, diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing, development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto River Valley region. Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the overnight period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday. Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of the central part of the country and cross the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal temperatures and another generally dry period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the TAF period includes an initial period of breezy showers early in the period (and perhaps a storm), followed by another bout of low stratus/fog late tonight into early Friday morning. The latest HRRR has storm tops increasing a bit over the next two hours as our developing line of showers shifts east toward central Ohio. This could bring a better chance of thunder into the TAFs for ILN and the Columbus terminals... though can`t rule it out at DAY and CVG/LUK either. Have leaned toward this morning`s conditions (persistence) as far as the low stratus late tonight. Guidance again shows more of an MVFR base... however, in this very moist environment believe formation will initially be below 1,000 feet AGL before lifting some with heating. Heading into Friday afternoon, a disturbance will bring another good chance of showers to the terminals. Thunder will be possible, which will be introduced in future updates as confidence improves. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM... AVIATION...