Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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323 FXUS61 KILN 050623 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 223 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Continue to see a weak boundary traversing our CWA causing mostly showers. The boundary will shift off to the east shortly after midnight leaving another quiet night. Guidance is signaling for low cloud and patchy fog development late, so will continue to keep clouds in the forecast through the night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day with the passage of the front moving through during the evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the day. As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening, diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing, development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto River Valley region. Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the overnight period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday. Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of the central part of the country and cross the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal temperatures and another generally dry period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A very moist airmass remains in place today. In the post rain environment expect fog and stratus to develop with IFR conditions likely at all TAF sites. Ceilings and vsbys will lift and improve after sunrise. An upper level low will track from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes today. Moderate instability will support the development of storms ahead of a cold front that sweeps east across the TAF sites late in the day. IFR conditions will be possible in any of these storms. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong winds. Storm threat ends late in the day into early evening with clouds scattering out and VFR conditions expected heading into this evening. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR