007
FXUS61 KILN 051857
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
257 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure
builds across the Ohio Valley. The next threat for showers and
thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as moisture increases on the
backside of retreating high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
This afternoon, the cold front which is expected to move
through the area later this evening still remains in Indiana.
Over the local area, remnant mid-level clouds from the earlier
line of showers and thunderstorms persists. This has kept area
temperatures in check, mostly ranging from the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Given the lack of modest warming across the area,
trended PoPs downward for later on this afternoon and evening,
however, there will still be some scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Can`t rule out an isolated strong wind gust, but
the overall severe threat remains limited.

Later this evening, the cold front will move through, shifting
winds out of the west and ushering in drier air. Lingering low
level moisture may allow for some valley fog to develop, and
this has been noted in the Scioto River Valley and portions of
the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough continues to move eastward Saturday morning,
with the surface low still north across the Great Lakes. Enough
moisture extends southward supporting the development of
stratocumulus during the mid-morning through early afternoon.
Heating during the afternoon will erode the cloud deck from
south to north. As a result of the clouds, high temperatures are
a few degrees lower north of I-70, generally in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Westerly winds are between 10 to 15 mph with a few
gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon.

Throughout the afternoon and into the evening, a weak surface
high pressure builds in from the west, keeping conditions dry.
Under mostly clear skies, low temperatures range from the upper
50s to the mid 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will keep the region dry for the beginning of the
week with temperatures rising back above normal. A short wave
will lift across the region on Tuesday dragging a weak cold
front across the area. This will bring the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms which should clear out by Tuesday
evening.

Mid level pattern becomes blocky with a positively tilted long
wave trough extending from eastern Canada into the Plains during
the latter part of the week. Forecast area will be on the front
side of this in broad west southwesterly flow. Surface high
will translate across the Great Lakes into New England during
the latter half of the week. At the same time, there is
considerable uncertainty with the fate of Beryl, but it certain
is possible that some of the moisture from the remnants of that
storm works its way into the area at some point. Given the wide
range of possibilities, have just included low chance PoPs
Wednesday into Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is moving
out of the area, providing some light rain to the Columbus area
TAF sites. Otherwise, the rest of the scattered activity is
isolated to the front which is still west of the sites, toward
Indianapolis. This front will generate additional showers and a
perhaps a few thunderstorms from 21-02Z as it moves through from
west to east. Based on the current environment over the area,
removed lightning mention because coverage is expected to be
more limited. As needed, TS mention will be added as confidence
improves.

Winds around 5-10 knots will shift to more westerly throughout
the remainder of the TAF behind the cold front. VFR
stratocumulus will then expand across the sites for much of
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis