985
FXUS62 KILM 041953
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will continue to bring warmer and more
humid air into the Carolinas. Daytime heat indices could exceed
105 degrees beginning Friday. Thunderstorm chances will
increase this weekend into early next week as a cold front
stalls inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure that extends up
and down the entire eastern seaboard. The old frontal boundary in SC
Lowcountry is still hanging on, but has made a slight northward push
into the Sea Islands of Beaufort County, SC. Meanwhile, the
anticyclone continues to spin over the Deep South.

Surface high pressure moves offshore today, which increases the
onshore flow across the area. Subsidence keeps rain chances at bay,
with a stout inversion noted at around 700mb. The bad news is that
heat and humidity is on the rise, and heat indices will hit the
triple digits today for the first time since last weekend. We don`t
quite hit Heat Advisory criteria (heat index of 105-109 degrees for
2+ hours), but it doesn`t necessarily matter. Keep up the water
intake, wear light clothing, and limit the outdoor activities. Stay
frosty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Hotter and more humid weather will continue on Saturday with
temps into the mid 90s and heat index values reaching Heat
Advisory thresholds inland of the beaches. The day will start
out so warm, near 80 in spots, that we may even see Heat
Warning criteria reached for an hour or so before clouds and
convection increases.

The upper level ridge will get nudged eastward as broad mid to
upper level trough over northern CONUS pushes a cold front
eastward. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to feed warm
and increasingly moist air into the Carolinas. Overall, Moisture
will pool ahead of this front in deep S-SW flow with pcp water
values upwards of 2 inches with dewpoint temps in the mid 70s
over the area. This will increase chances of convection into Sat
aftn and early evening mainly focused inland with the main
threat of heavy rainfall in weak steering flow, producing
localized flooding in places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge across the Southeast gets squeezed out a bit
between upper trough to the west and upper low spinning to the
east early next week. The greatest moisture axis will push
eastward ahead of the stalling front to the west and align
itself over the eastern Carolinas with pcp water values upwards
of 2 inches focused across the eastern Carolinas. May end up
being more in the way of clouds along the coast on Sunday with
storms focused along stalled front inland, but in general,
should see diurnal localized convection each day with main
threat of localized flooding. May see some subsidence on back
end of the upper low help to limit convection over the area Mon
or Tues before next trough and front reaches the Carolinas Wed
into Thurs. Overall, a very warm and moist summertime air mass
will remain in place with better chc of convection on Sun for
the coast and slightly less hot temps due to clouds and
convection on Sun. May flirt with Heat Advisory conditions
through the week, but should be affected by clouds and
convection through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the period. Winds will become light and somewhat
variable tonight, with a SW component coming to dominate Friday.
There is one or two pieces of model guidance that depict short-lived
showers tonight at ILM roughly 09-12Z but they are not the accepted
solution at this time.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of
the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of
flight restrictions this weekend and into early next week as
chances for convection return.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Tonights S to SW flow will remain quite light and
Beryl swells will be the dominant wave. Heading into tomorrow the
swell energy will be abating while a developing Piedmont trough
raises wind speed by about a category.

Friday night through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will
prevail with a cold front likely stalling out inland early next
week. Although winds will be elevated at times, mainly each
afternoon due to the sea breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt
or less. Seas will stay 4 ft or less with wave periods
diminishing through the period as the SE swells subside. Thus,
not expecting any Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Raised Cape Fear Region to High Risk of rip currents for the
remainder of the afternoon after some timely feedback from our
Ocean Rescue contacts. With Beryl swell continuing into Saturday
could just as easily see MOD as HIGH-will let eve and overnight
shifts re-evaluate.

Low confidence that LCFR at downtown kisses 5.5` for an hour but
since the new moon is tomorrow it seems plausible that the high
tides will keep growing even if slightly. Will go ahead and
hoist the adv with the afternoon package. High tide is at 930
PM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MBB