588
FXUS62 KILM 072345
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
745 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and muggy airmass will remain in place across the Carolinas
this week with dangerous heat and humidity possible at times.
Unsettled weather should provide some much-needed rainfall late
this week and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track with quiet weather for the most part. Showers
and thunderstorms were remaining north and west of forecast area
aside from one or two developing over northern Pender and
earlier near Lumberton. Models continue to show slight chc of
shwrs reaching into the Pee Dee or places west of I-95 corridor,
but with loss of heating and front still far enough away,
expect only isolated.

Aviation discussion updated below for 00z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the Atlantic will remain in control
of the weather locally while a stalled front remains over the
Piedmont well northwest of the CWA. A retrograding mid-upper
closed low will help to redirect the mid-upper flow from
westerly today to be more northerly on Monday. The stalled front
will help focus convective development northwest of the area
which could bring semi-organized clusters of storms
southeastward or southward into the western zones mainly near
and west of I-95 during the evening today and on Monday.
Anomalous moisture featuring PWATs of 2-2.3" will keep a risk of
very heavy rainfall in place where any thunderstorms occur.
Otherwise, the sea breeze should mainly be a focus for brief
shower development with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Temperatures will remain closer to normal amidst greater cloud
cover and isolated to widely scattered showers and storms.
Morning lows in the mid-upper 70s and highs in the lower 90s are
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Stalled front will remain west of the area through Tuesday
night and high pressure offshore will continue to rejuvenate a
warm and humid air mass. Expect showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday inland after daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. Dew
points in the lower 70s could produce heat indices up to 105
degrees. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern during
afternoon storms as steering flow remains weak. Lows each night
in the mid 70s to near 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Remaining warm and muggy during the middle of this week even as
a stalled frontal boundary lifts north and westward with the
remnants of Beryl. Moisture deepens on Wednesday and upper
trough slips southward. Combination of these two features should
lead to scattered showers and storms both Wednesday and
Thursday.

Rain chances increase later in the week as the previously
stalled front returns to the western Carolinas. Deep moisture
and mid level shortwave near the front will likely create
widespread showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Have capped
12-hour PoPs to around 60% as this activity will be convective
in nature, but follow the diurnal expectation loosely. Onshore
flow could fuel a few storms near the coast overnight. Heavy
rain will continue to be the main concern in addition to the
routine threat of an isolated strong downburst.

The front is expected to dissipate by Sunday, but an approaching
(albeit weak) shortwave from the northwest could maintain
unsettled conditions. Coverage is expected to be less than
previous days. Upper level moisture will decrease slightly and
could introduce a better chance for isolated strong wind gusts
on Sunday afternoon.

Highs during the middle of this week staying in the low to mid
90s each afternoon. Heat indices up to 105 degrees are
possible. Cooling toward the end of this week as a cold front
attempts to return to its original position and clouds and
convection dominate. Gradually warming late next weekend with a
gradual return to typical afternoon storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through most of the period, but can
not rule out brief sub-VFR in a shower or patchy fog. Models
keep any pcp outside of TAF area with any iso shwr/tstm holding
off to the west into tonight, but may see coastal terminals
affected by a passing shwr moving on shore early morning or sea
breeze development heading toward noon.

Confidence is still too low to include fog in the terminals. LBT
and ILM did see some pcp today which could aid in development,
but area of mid to high clouds continues to cover much of the
Pee Dee. Model soundings show some thickening of the mid to
high clouds with ceiling possible down to 11-12k ft affecting
the terminals with additional diurnal cu developing around 3-4k
ft into Mon aftn with westerly winds aloft blowing additional
debris clouds eastward Mon aftn. Sfc winds will remain southerly
for the most part with sea breeze backing the winds slightly
more S-SE at coastal terminals into Mon aftn.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of
convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each
morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday... South to south-southwesterly winds of around 10
kts with gusts to around 15 kts will continue through the period
around offshore high pressure. Waves of 2-3 ft will be driven by a
combination of southeasterly swells of around 2 ft at 8-9 sec and
southerly wind waves of 1-2 ft at 4 sec.

Monday through Thursday Night... Bermuda high to maintain
typical summertime conditions with southerly flow over the next
several days. Winds around 10 knots likely each day, increasing
slightly during the afternoon near the coastline in a weak sea
breeze. Seas around 2-3 feet but building to around 3-4 into the
Thursday with the development of southerly swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...21/ABW