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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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595 FXUS62 KILM 081632 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and very humid weather will continue through at least Wednesday as tropical air continues to stream in from the south around Bermuda High Pressure. Weak low pressure developing across the Carolinas will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week. && .UPDATE... Satellite shows a lingering MCV (mesoscale convective complex) near Marlboro county leftover from overnight convection across the central Carolinas. This MCV is helping fire off showers across northeast SC (with a few lingering showers across the Cape Fear region). Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue through late afternoon hours before tampering off this evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Coverage of afternoon storms will still be the question for today as the stalled boundary remains to our north, leading CAMs to struggle with the weak ridging in place. PWATs remain generally near 2" over the area with upwards of 2.5" possible over NE SC, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Should storms start training over the same areas localized flooding could be possible, but haven`t seen evidence of that in guidance. High and mid-level clouds should keep highs in the lower to mid 90s. Some patchy fog may be possible again tonight based on rainfall totals/location. Lows in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Although the 500 mb subtropical high will be centered off the East Coast, a ridge axis extending westward will remain near the eastern Carolinas through midweek. A mid and upper level low retrograding west-southwestward beneath the ridge should approach the Florida east coast by Wednesday. At the surface, Bermuda High Pressure will remain anchored well offshore, providing a light south wind and keeping a fully tropical airmass in place. The remnant of Hurricane Beryl`s circulation should take a path from the Ozarks Tuesday across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday with little direct impact across the eastern Carolinas. Forecast rain chances represent a forecast dilemma. The airmass will certainly remain unstable and humid enough for convection with only slight provocation from the Piedmont/Sandhills differential heating boundary, seabreeze/landbreeze fronts, as well as subsequent outflow boundaries. Countering that is the lack of any trackable upper features that would promote ascent. GFS MOS numbers represent a reasonable scenario of 30-40 percent daily coverage of storms for the coastal counties and 50-60 percent inland. Although areal average rainfall amounts won`t be significant, slow forecast cell movement and column precipitable water values near 2.25 inches suggest there will be localized heavy rain both days. Before storms develop, highs should soar into the mid 90s inland both days and heat indices should eclipse 105 degrees. For the coastal counties onshore winds will keep daytime temperatures several degrees cooler, but even here heat indices could reach 105 except right on the beaches themselves. Forecast lows won`t provide a lot of relief as the water vapor-laden atmosphere restricts radiational cooling. Forecast lows range from 75-77 inland to around 80 on the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weather pattern should become a bit more interesting late in the week. The vorticity associated with the retrograding upper system that stalls across Florida Wednesday should get drawn northward by a trough moving across the Great Lakes Friday. Synoptic lift as this system approaches the Carolinas in combination with enhanced southerly low level flow east of a weak inland low taking shape over the interior Carolinas should force an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast PoPs of 50-60 percent Thursday increase to 60-70 percent Friday. As drought conditions continue to worsen across many portions of the Carolinas, this increase in potential rainfall cannot come soon enough. Increased cloud cover and rain should knock temperatures down a few degrees versus earlier in the week. It`s possible on Friday highs could be held in the 80s even inland. By Saturday, the weak inland low is shown in models to largely dissipate. A less active upper pattern should help to reduce shower and thunderstorm coverage both Saturday and Sunday. Inland highs should bounce back into the 90s Saturday, with 90s spreading down to the coast by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Brief restrictions possible early this morning at KFLO/KMYR/KCRE due to some lowered CIGs from the rain last night. Unsettled weather this afternoon could lead to brief restrictions much like we`ve seen over the past couple days. Afternoon cu should be around 4-5 kft with the sea breeze moving through 15-17Z making winds more SSE. Activity should start to diminish towards tonight with just slight chances for rain at the coast. Overnight fog/stratus possible for inland terminals. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each morning, especially where precip falls the previous day. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions. S winds will remain near 10 kts today. No real change in the swells during the day with a S wind wave and a SE swell 1-2 ft at 8-9 seconds. Seas generally 2 ft with some 3 footers possible in the outer waters as the SE swell begins to increase. Tuesday through Friday night...Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored well offshore through the entire week, maintaining southerly winds across the Carolinas. The remnant circulation from Hurricane Beryl should move from the Ozarks on Tuesday, to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, then through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday, providing negligible impact locally. A second, weaker low, unrelated to Beryl`s remnants, is forecast to develop across the interior portion of the Carolinas late Wednesday into Thursday. This feature should tighten up the local pressure gradient and may produce an increase in wind speed here Thursday into Friday, possibly to a solid 15 knots before any local seabreeze enhancement. The long fetch of winds around Bermuda High Pressure could help increase sea heights to 5 feet by late in the week, especially near and north of Cape Fear. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...LEW MARINE...TRA/LEW