369
FXUS62 KILM 081739
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
139 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and very humid weather will continue through at least
Wednesday as tropical air continues to stream in from the south
around Bermuda High Pressure. Weak low pressure developing
across the Carolinas will bring increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Satellite shows a lingering MCV (mesoscale convective complex)
near Marlboro county leftover from overnight convection across
the central Carolinas. This MCV is helping fire off showers
across northeast SC (with a few lingering showers across the
Cape Fear region). Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
will continue through late afternoon hours before tampering off
this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Coverage of afternoon storms will still be the question for today as
the stalled boundary remains to our north, leading CAMs to struggle
with the weak ridging in place. PWATs remain generally near 2" over
the area with upwards of 2.5" possible over NE SC, so locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. Should storms start training over the
same areas localized flooding could be possible, but haven`t seen
evidence of that in guidance. High and mid-level clouds should keep
highs in the lower to mid 90s. Some patchy fog may be possible
again tonight based on rainfall totals/location. Lows in the mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Although the 500 mb subtropical high will be centered off the
East Coast, a ridge axis extending westward will remain near the
eastern Carolinas through midweek. A mid and upper level low
retrograding west-southwestward beneath the ridge should
approach the Florida east coast by Wednesday. At the surface,
Bermuda High Pressure will remain anchored well offshore,
providing a light south wind and keeping a fully tropical
airmass in place. The remnant of Hurricane Beryl`s circulation
should take a path from the Ozarks Tuesday across the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday with little direct impact across the eastern
Carolinas.

Forecast rain chances represent a forecast dilemma. The airmass
will certainly remain unstable and humid enough for convection
with only slight provocation from the Piedmont/Sandhills
differential heating boundary, seabreeze/landbreeze fronts, as
well as subsequent outflow boundaries. Countering that is the
lack of any trackable upper features that would promote ascent.
GFS MOS numbers represent a reasonable scenario of 30-40 percent
daily coverage of storms for the coastal counties and 50-60
percent inland. Although areal average rainfall amounts won`t be
significant, slow forecast cell movement and column
precipitable water values near 2.25 inches suggest there will be
localized heavy rain both days.

Before storms develop, highs should soar into the mid 90s inland
both days and heat indices should eclipse 105 degrees. For the
coastal counties onshore winds will keep daytime temperatures
several degrees cooler, but even here heat indices could reach
105 except right on the beaches themselves. Forecast lows won`t
provide a lot of relief as the water vapor-laden atmosphere
restricts radiational cooling. Forecast lows range from 75-77
inland to around 80 on the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weather pattern should become a bit more interesting late in
the week. The vorticity associated with the retrograding upper
system that stalls across Florida Wednesday should get drawn
northward by a trough moving across the Great Lakes Friday.
Synoptic lift as this system approaches the Carolinas in
combination with enhanced southerly low level flow east of a
weak inland low taking shape over the interior Carolinas should
force an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast PoPs of 50-60 percent Thursday increase to 60-70
percent Friday. As drought conditions continue to worsen across
many portions of the Carolinas, this increase in potential
rainfall cannot come soon enough.

Increased cloud cover and rain should knock temperatures down a
few degrees versus earlier in the week. It`s possible on Friday
highs could be held in the 80s even inland.

By Saturday, the weak inland low is shown in models to largely
dissipate. A less active upper pattern should help to reduce
shower and thunderstorm coverage both Saturday and Sunday.
Inland highs should bounce back into the 90s Saturday, with 90s
spreading down to the coast by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across
northeast SC, with a few spotty showers near KILM. Precipitation
will come to an end this evening. Currently have MVFR vsbys and
potentially IFR ceilings along and west of I-95 (including KFLO
and LBT) starting around 8-9z, with ceilings perhaps not
improving to VFR until after 14z tomorrow morning. Chance for
fog across Cape Fear (inc. KILM) where heavy rain fell earlier
today, but confidence is too low as of now to include in TAFs.
There is also potential for low clouds to move onshore near
MYR/CRE overnight through sunrise, but may be more scattered
than broken. Tuesday, looking at another day of scattered
convection developing by midday. Winds generally out of the
south, with light/calm winds overnight.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of
convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each
morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions. S winds will remain near 10
kts today. No real change in the swells during the day with a S wind
wave and a SE swell 1-2 ft at 8-9 seconds. Seas generally 2 ft with
some 3 footers possible in the outer waters as the SE swell begins
to increase.

Tuesday through Friday night...Bermuda high pressure will remain
anchored well offshore through the entire week, maintaining
southerly winds across the Carolinas. The remnant circulation
from Hurricane Beryl should move from the Ozarks on Tuesday,
to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, then through the eastern Great
Lakes on Thursday, providing negligible impact locally. A
second, weaker low, unrelated to Beryl`s remnants, is forecast
to develop across the interior portion of the Carolinas late
Wednesday into Thursday. This feature should tighten up the
local pressure gradient and may produce an increase in wind
speed here Thursday into Friday, possibly to a solid 15 knots
before any local seabreeze enhancement. The long fetch of winds
around Bermuda High Pressure could help increase sea heights to
5 feet by late in the week, especially near and north of Cape
Fear.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...TRA/LEW