953
FXUS62 KILM 070112
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
912 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A muggy airmass will remain in place through the weekend and
next week. Afternoon heat indices will approach or exceed 100
degrees each afternoon, although scattered thunderstorms will
provide occasional relief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to adjust PoPs based on latest radar trends,
but only small adjustments were needed from the previous
forecast. The Heat Advisory/Warning have ended, with no need
for one tomorrow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place over the region while a
shortwave passing by to the north weakens it slightly through
tonight and Sunday. In light of the weakened ridge and a surface
cold front stalling across the Piedmont, greater shower and
thunderstorm coverage than the last few days is expected late this
afternoon and evening as well as tomorrow afternoon, mainly across
inland areas near and west of I-95. Also, temperatures will return
closer to seasonal norms with highs expected to reach the lower 90s
tomorrow after morning lows in the mid-upper 70s. Heat indices
should still reach the low 100s, but stay below Heat Advisory
criteria of 105F or greater for 2+ hours. Early morning mist or
patchy fog may occur early Sunday morning where rain falls this
evening as winds should become light and variable or even calm for a
time later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A typical summertime airmass will remain in place through the short
term. The surface frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary
across central NC and upstate SC, with precipitable water values of
2.4-2.6" covering much of the eastern Carolinas. The mid/upper low
swirling several hundred miles east of Cape Fear will slowly draw
closer, making it to within a few hundred miles of the coast by
Monday before taking a turn towards the southwest and beginning to
fill. The resulting NW component to winds aloft may usher in some
weak PVA that could enhance shower/tstms coverage at time through
the period. Will hold PoPs in a 40-70% range (highest inland),
peaking Monday afternoon/evening. Clouds/precip from scattered to
numerous showers/tstms should keep heat indices a little below
advisory criteria, but still over 100 in many locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There appears to be no significant change to the pattern through the
long term period. The offshore mid/upper low, well off the SC coast
by Tuesday, will fill as it drifts south. A longwave trough axis
across the MS River Valley will remain mostly in place, with a ridge
across the SE CONUS. The soupy airmass will persist across the
forecast area, with precipitable water values hovering around 2.25-
2.5". Expect lows in the mid 70s each night, highs of 90-95 each
afternoon, and PoPs in the 40-70% range each afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR over the TAF sites as of 23Z. Expect scattered thunderstorms
around FLO/LBT this evening, leading to periodic MVFR/IFR
conditions possible. Dry along the coast. Guidance still not
overly confident on fog formation overnight, esp. with the
uncertainty of rain falling over the TAF sites, so maintained
previous forecast of no fog, with MVFR cigs more likely - mainly
inland. Similar conditions for Sunday as today - light
southerly flow and isolated/scattered aftn
showers/thunderstorms.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of
convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each
morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...High pressure offshore will maintain a
generally southerly flow over the waters with speeds decreasing
to around 10 kts or so tomorrow. While a southeasterly 2 ft
swell at 8-9 sec will persist through the period, south-
southwesterly wind waves will decrease from 2-3 ft today to 1-2
ft tomorrow.

Sunday night through Thursday...Bermuda high pressure will be the
dominant weather feature through the period. The result will be
general southerly flow on the order of 10-15 kt, with periodic gusts
to 20 kts in the afternoon and evening near shore. Scattered
afternoon and nighttime convection will be more prevalent inland,
but may also develop or drift over the waters at times. A 2 ft SE
swell every 7-8 seconds will persist through the period, along with
a 1-2 ft southerly wind wave every 5 sec.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...ABW/CRM