073
FXUS62 KILM 192014
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
414 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable but unsettled weather will continue for most of the
next seven days as Bermuda High and Piedmont Trough remain
nearly stationary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just north of the local
forecast area. This front has worked along with the Piedmont trough
and the seabreeze to spawn some sparse convection over the area so
far, with more to come over the next several hours. While no severe
weather is expected, some storms may become strong at times, with
wind gusts up to 40-45 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Still have plenty of water in the column, with precipitable water
values routinely climbing above 2 inches. However, the mid-levels
aren`t as saturated, and Corfidi downshear vectors are rather fast.
Locally heavy rain is certainly possible in some spots, but
especially considering the drought, we shouldn`t have any widespread
flooding issues to worry about. Convection wanes a bit late this
evening after solar insolation decreases, but rain chances remain
near the coast. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 70s.

Weak cold front tries to edge a bit closer to the area Saturday.
This kicks up the rain chances even more, aided by better forcing
aloft from shortwaves traversing through the area from the
southwest. This puts the kinematics in better shape compared to
today, allowing for a "Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/5) of severe
weather, particularly closer to the coast. While shear is still on
the weaker side, it does poke up just enough to warrant a damaging
wind threat in multicell thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Still looking at vort-laden southwesterly mid level flow and a front
stalled in the area. On the downside this means widespread showers
and storms that will be hard to pin down timing and location-wise,
the upside is that most places should get more drought releif.
Temperature deviations from climatology will be minimal through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An admittedly rare July forecast with very elevated rain chances
through most of its duration. The front from the near/short term
will no longer be the culprit as it will have washed out. The
deviation from the normal pattern (more ridging/higher heights
aloft) will be the continued deep southerly flow; southeasterly in
the low levels and southwesterly above. This prevents any of the
antecedent deep layer moisture from being scoured out. Most of the
long term will feature PW values from 2.0-2.3", which are the 90th
percentile and daily maxima for the dates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection starting to break out slowly but surely to open the 18Z
TAF period. Coverage is isolated at this point, and while there are
no guarantees of storms hitting the terminals, threw in TEMPO groups
over the next few hours to cover the TSRA threats, which would
likely bring down the flight categories to MVFR at best, IFR at
worst. Guidance shows a smaller secondary wave moving through after
sunset tonight, particularly inland. Winds look to calm inland late,
which may introduce fog or low stratus across KFLO and KLBT.
Whatever forms should clear out by 13-15Z. Southwesterly flow
continues throughout the period as high as 10-15kts in the
afternoon, calming overnight.

Extended Outlook...Potential for afternoon and evening MVFR/IFR from
showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...SSW to SW winds at 10-15kts continue through this
period. Seas linger at 2-3ft, with a combination of wind waves and a
smaller southeasterly swell that clocks in at 8-9 seconds.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Very little deviations from
south to southwesterly winds with the Bermuda High and Piedmont
trough in semi-permanent positions. With speeds generally 10-15kt
winds waves will run 2-3 ft, while a small SE component will yield a
dominant wave forecast of 3-4ft for most of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...IGB