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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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752 FXUS62 KILM 201732 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 132 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly stationary. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the area today and tonight as weak upper level energy approaches from the sw. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Given the abundant moisture available, locally heavy rain is possible but the storms should move quickly enough to preclude widespread flooding concerns. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Persistent southwest flow will maintain deep moisture advection through Monday evening. Perturbations in the mid level flow will support widespread showers and storms each afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the areal focus for showers and storms may shift slightly each day and at this stage, it is difficult to pinpoint where that will be. Temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 during the afternoon and low to mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather continues this week. An upper level ridge will creep into the Carolinas by mid week and begin to gradually move eastward again toward next weekend. This could shift the bulk of our rain chances inland, but southerly flow will maintain deep moisture and temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s will routinely generate afternoon instability over all areas. Humid surface air will also bring shower chances to the coast during the morning hours yielding a wet forecast from sunrise to sunset. Happy to report that the long stretch of brutally hot temperatures seems to take a break over the next week or so. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Anticipate another round of MVFR/IFR showers and thunderstorms in the area late afternoon/evening. Thus far storms have struggled to develop along the sea breeze and lingering convective boundaries. Expect to see a few showers/thunderstorms develop through late afternoon, with storm coverage increasing in the evening as convection moves in from the southwest and west. Potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility overnight if there is significant rainfall with late evening storms due to somewhat weaker boundary layer winds (boundary layer overnight will be similar in strength to winds last night). Extended Outlook...High potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms each day through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Outside showers and storms, expect S to SW winds 10 to 15 KT with seas of 2 to 4 FT. Sunday through Wednesday Night... Bermuda high brings consistency this week. Southerly flow during the afternoon between 15-20 knots weakens and turns southwesterly overnight. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely, especially overnight. Coverage will decrease during the middle of next week as a mid level ridge over the western Atlantic builds westward. SE swell remains 2-3 feet at around 9 seconds through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...21/31 NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...III MARINE...21/31