Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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009 FXUS62 KILM 050059 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 859 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will continue to bring warmer and more humid air into the Carolinas. Daytime heat indices could exceed 105 degrees beginning Friday. Thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend into early next week as a cold front stalls inland. && .UPDATE... Surface high pressure off the coast will maintain a light southerly flow overnight, while a ridge axis aloft inhibits convection. Water levels along the lower Cape Fear River are just about to peak (high tide at downtown ILM is around 9:30 pm), and will be slightly above minor flooding thresholds. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 11 PM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure that extends up and down the entire eastern seaboard. The old frontal boundary in SC Lowcountry is still hanging on, but has made a slight northward push into the Sea Islands of Beaufort County, SC. Meanwhile, the anticyclone continues to spin over the Deep South. Subsidence keeps rain chances at bay, with a stout inversion noted at around 700mb. The bad news is that heat and humidity is on the rise, and heat indices will hit the triple digits today for the first time since last weekend. We don`t quite hit Heat Advisory criteria (heat index of 105-109 degrees for 2+ hours), but it doesn`t necessarily matter. Keep up the water intake, wear light clothing, and limit the outdoor activities. Stay frosty. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Hotter and more humid weather will continue on Saturday with temps into the mid 90s and heat index values reaching Heat Advisory thresholds inland of the beaches. The day will start out so warm, near 80 in spots, that we may even see Heat Warning criteria reached for an hour or so before clouds and convection increases. The upper level ridge will get nudged eastward as broad mid to upper level trough over northern CONUS pushes a cold front eastward. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to feed warm and increasingly moist air into the Carolinas. Overall, Moisture will pool ahead of this front in deep S-SW flow with pcp water values upwards of 2 inches with dewpoint temps in the mid 70s over the area. This will increase chances of convection into Sat aftn and early evening mainly focused inland with the main threat of heavy rainfall in weak steering flow, producing localized flooding in places. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper ridge across the Southeast gets squeezed out a bit between upper trough to the west and upper low spinning to the east early next week. The greatest moisture axis will push eastward ahead of the stalling front to the west and align itself over the eastern Carolinas with pcp water values upwards of 2 inches focused across the eastern Carolinas. May end up being more in the way of clouds along the coast on Sunday with storms focused along stalled front inland, but in general, should see diurnal localized convection each day with main threat of localized flooding. May see some subsidence on back end of the upper low help to limit convection over the area Mon or Tues before next trough and front reaches the Carolinas Wed into Thurs. Overall, a very warm and moist summertime air mass will remain in place with better chc of convection on Sun for the coast and slightly less hot temps due to clouds and convection on Sun. May flirt with Heat Advisory conditions through the week, but should be affected by clouds and convection through the week. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure off the coast will maintain generally light southerly flow through Friday, and mid/upper ridging overhead should keep showers and thunderstorms at bay. Some broken Cu is likely late tonight into Friday morning around 5-6 kft. Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of flight restrictions this weekend and into early next week as chances for convection return. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Tonights S to SW flow will remain quite light and Beryl swells will be the dominant wave. Heading into tomorrow the swell energy will be abating while a developing Piedmont trough raises wind speed by about a category. Friday night through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with a cold front likely stalling out inland early next week. Although winds will be elevated at times, mainly each afternoon due to the sea breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt or less. Seas will stay 4 ft or less with wave periods diminishing through the period as the SE swells subside. Thus, not expecting any Small Craft Advisories. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High Risk of rip currents continues through Friday for Cape Fear northward, and with Beryl swell continuing into Saturday expect at least a moderate risk then. Low confidence that LCFR at downtown kisses 5.5` for an hour but since the new moon is tomorrow it seems plausible that the high tides will keep growing even if slightly. Will go ahead and hoist the adv with the afternoon package. High tide is at 930 PM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...CRM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...CRM MARINE...MBB/RGZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM