009
FXUS62 KILM 050059
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
859 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will continue to bring warmer and more
humid air into the Carolinas. Daytime heat indices could exceed
105 degrees beginning Friday. Thunderstorm chances will
increase this weekend into early next week as a cold front
stalls inland.

&&

.UPDATE...
Surface high pressure off the coast will maintain a light southerly
flow overnight, while a ridge axis aloft inhibits convection. Water
levels along the lower Cape Fear River are just about to peak (high
tide at downtown ILM is around 9:30 pm), and will be slightly above
minor flooding thresholds. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect through 11 PM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure that extends up
and down the entire eastern seaboard. The old frontal boundary in SC
Lowcountry is still hanging on, but has made a slight northward push
into the Sea Islands of Beaufort County, SC. Meanwhile, the
anticyclone continues to spin over the Deep South.

Subsidence keeps rain chances at bay, with a stout inversion noted at
around 700mb. The bad news is that heat and humidity is on the rise,
and heat indices will hit the triple digits today for the first time
since last weekend. We don`t quite hit Heat Advisory criteria (heat
index of 105-109 degrees for 2+ hours), but it doesn`t necessarily
matter. Keep up the water intake, wear light clothing, and limit the
outdoor activities. Stay frosty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Hotter and more humid weather will continue on Saturday with
temps into the mid 90s and heat index values reaching Heat
Advisory thresholds inland of the beaches. The day will start
out so warm, near 80 in spots, that we may even see Heat
Warning criteria reached for an hour or so before clouds and
convection increases.

The upper level ridge will get nudged eastward as broad mid to
upper level trough over northern CONUS pushes a cold front
eastward. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to feed warm
and increasingly moist air into the Carolinas. Overall, Moisture
will pool ahead of this front in deep S-SW flow with pcp water
values upwards of 2 inches with dewpoint temps in the mid 70s
over the area. This will increase chances of convection into Sat
aftn and early evening mainly focused inland with the main
threat of heavy rainfall in weak steering flow, producing
localized flooding in places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge across the Southeast gets squeezed out a bit
between upper trough to the west and upper low spinning to the
east early next week. The greatest moisture axis will push
eastward ahead of the stalling front to the west and align
itself over the eastern Carolinas with pcp water values upwards
of 2 inches focused across the eastern Carolinas. May end up
being more in the way of clouds along the coast on Sunday with
storms focused along stalled front inland, but in general,
should see diurnal localized convection each day with main
threat of localized flooding. May see some subsidence on back
end of the upper low help to limit convection over the area Mon
or Tues before next trough and front reaches the Carolinas Wed
into Thurs. Overall, a very warm and moist summertime air mass
will remain in place with better chc of convection on Sun for
the coast and slightly less hot temps due to clouds and
convection on Sun. May flirt with Heat Advisory conditions
through the week, but should be affected by clouds and
convection through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure off the coast will maintain generally
light southerly flow through Friday, and mid/upper ridging
overhead should keep showers and thunderstorms at bay. Some
broken Cu is likely late tonight into Friday morning around 5-6
kft.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of
the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of
flight restrictions this weekend and into early next week as
chances for convection return.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Tonights S to SW flow will remain quite light and
Beryl swells will be the dominant wave. Heading into tomorrow the
swell energy will be abating while a developing Piedmont trough
raises wind speed by about a category.

Friday night through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will
prevail with a cold front likely stalling out inland early next
week. Although winds will be elevated at times, mainly each
afternoon due to the sea breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt
or less. Seas will stay 4 ft or less with wave periods
diminishing through the period as the SE swells subside. Thus,
not expecting any Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High Risk of rip currents continues through Friday for Cape Fear
northward, and with Beryl swell continuing into Saturday expect
at least a moderate risk then.

Low confidence that LCFR at downtown kisses 5.5` for an hour but
since the new moon is tomorrow it seems plausible that the high
tides will keep growing even if slightly. Will go ahead and
hoist the adv with the afternoon package. High tide is at 930 PM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM