060
FXUS62 KILM 061351
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
951 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity will persist today along with a
better chance of showers and storms. The rainier than normal
pattern should persist through most of next week as a front
stalls inland with a bit of a break in the heat.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes needed from the ongoing forecast. Another
morning of largely unrestricted heating is underway with temps
crossing into the upper 80s now and expected to continue
warming into the mid-upper 90s this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are still expected to develop, with the greatest
coverage west of our area. Depending on how soon in the
afternoon this occurs, inland areas near and west of I-95 may
see increasingly thick cirrus limit their heating by mid-
afternoon, but Heat Advisory criteria should have already been
met both in terms of heat indices of 105-109F and time duration
>2 hrs by then. The Excessive Heat Warning also appears to be on
track with heat indices already nearing or reaching 100F at
Lumberton and Elizabethtown.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stalled cold front will stay to our west through the day,
enhancing coverage of afternoon/evening convection near and west of
I-95. At the same time, highs away from the coast are expected to
reach near 100F again (with possible record highs at KLBT/KFLO),
heat indices 105-110. The difficulty regarding Heat Advisory vs
Excessive Heat Warning will be the effects of rain, clouds, and
mixing. Opted to raise an Excessive Heat Warning for Robeson
and Bladen counties where probabilities of sustained heat
indices at or above 110 were highest, but it`s hard to rule out
that other spots inland could briefly reach 110 as well. Perhaps
this could be better evaluated with subsequent updates to the
forecast later in the morning. The sea breeze will limit warming
at the coast, where a Heat Advisory has not been raised.
Rainfall amounts/location will also likely influence fog
formation overnight, as winds should become calm roughly after
midnight with mostly dry conditions. Lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Bit cooler with above normal rain chances inland
*No significant impacts expected

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

A stalled front inland along with plentiful moisture and some upper
forcing will lead to higher than normal rain chances inland with
coastal areas likely to miss out on most of the rain given the
onshore flow/sea breeze.

Temps are a bit tricky though given some uncertainty in rain/cloud
coverage but should generally be near to maybe slightly above
normal. Fortunately peak heat indices should stay below Heat
Advisory levels (105 degrees).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
*Hot/humid weather continues with Heat Advisories possible each
 day inland, mainly through Thursday
*Much-needed rainfall possible, especially inland

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

A more unsettled pattern than normal is likely given a stalled
front/trough inland while Atlantic high pressure centered to the
east prevails. Severe storms will only be a low threat with
localized flooding likely a slightly bigger threat. Although
temps look to be held down a bit closer to normal the high
dewpoints could still push heat indices above Heat Advisory
levels (105-109 degrees) each afternoon away from the coast,
mainly through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR expected for coastal terminals with MVFR and possibly IFR
for inland terminals through the 12Z TAF period. SW winds will
become more S this afternoon with a sea breeze moving through
the coastal terminals around 15-17Z, gusts 20-25 kts. Highest
chances for showers/storms are at inland terminals during the
late afternoon and evening. Tried to add timing/restriction
info with PROB30 but this should be able to be honed in on with
later TAF updates. Mostly dry conditions expected at the coast
with afternoon cu ~4kft. Restrictions in the way of fog and/or
low stratus could remain at inland terminals depending on
rainfall amounts/coverage.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of
convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each
morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions expected. SSW winds 15-20 kts
will yield a wind wave 2-3 ft at 4-5 seconds with a SE long period
swell at 2 ft and 8-9 seconds. Wave heights should be 2-3 ft amidst
the competing swells.

Sunday through Wednesday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with
a stalled front inland. The pretty typical summertime pattern will
lead to periodic higher winds, mainly each afternoon/evening due to
the sea breeze and nocturnal surging. However, with winds mostly
staying below 20 kt and seas mostly 3 ft or less we are not
expecting any Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-
     096.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ099-105-107-
     109.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW