115
FXUS63 KICT 032341
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this evening and tonight.
  Best severe wind potential will be over central Kansas, best
  heavy rainfall and flooding potential will be over southeast
  Kansas.

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms possible
  Thursday afternoon-evening, mainly along and southeast of the
  Kansas Turnpike.

- Next chances for thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday night.

- Seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures expected the next
  7-10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

THIS AFTERNOON--EARLY EVENING...Currently, widespread showers with a
few embedded claps of thunder are impacting the region, within a
region of rich mid-level moisture and mid-level warm advection ahead
of an approaching upper trough. While much of this activity will
contain relatively light rainfall rates, some localized enhancement
is likely within some of the more robust convection, supporting
potentially localized minor flooding.

THIS EVENING--EARLY THURSDAY...As the evening progresses, thinking
there`ll be an uptick in thunderstorm chances/coverage, ahead of the
approaching upper trough. There will be two areas we`ll be
monitoring...the first will be thunderstorms rolling east off the
High Plains emanating from a lee trough, and the 2nd will be gradual
thunderstorm development over central and eastern Kansas, as a
strengthening low-level jet impinges on a stalled frontal zone to
the south. Poor lapse rates should keep large hail potential low,
although decent deep layer shear could support a few storms with
marginally severe hail. Additionally, the stronger cells could
produce locally severe wind gusts, especially associated with the
activity rolling east off the High Plains, closest to better DCAPE
values.

Probably the greatest concern later this evening through early
Thursday will be locally intense rainfall rates and flooding
potential, especially over southeast Kansas. Ingredients appear to
be coming together for a relatively narrow swath of very heavy
rainfall, aided by a deep monsoonal moisture fetch and associated
very high precipitable waters, an east-west oriented 850mb
baroclinic zone, and favorable jet dynamics in the right entrance
region. Consequently, issued a Flood Watch for Greenwood and Elk
counties on east. Short-range guidance suggests these locations have
the highest probability of seeing those training cells and very
heavy rainfall, where localized amounts of 2-4+ inches are possible.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Thinking the focus for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be generally along and southeast of the
KS Turnpike, as a strong cold front slices southeast through the
region. The primary threats will be hail and wind, along with
locally heavy rainfall.

SATURDAY--SUNDAY NIGHT...Thunderstorm chances increase across the
region, as a seasonably strong upper trough approaches from the
northwest, along with an associated frontal zone. Thinking the
greatest threats will be severe wind, marginally severe hail, and
locally heavy rainfall.

TEMPERATURES...With upper troughing dominating the picture across
portions of the central and eastern CONUS, thinking temperatures the
next 7-10 days will be mostly seasonable to even seasonably cool,
with forecast high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, and overnight
lows in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Main concern will be the thunderstorm development later in the
TAF period. For the most part, VFR and MVFR conditions are
expected for the first few hours. By 05Z, thunderstorms will
begin to enter the region with KRSL and KGBD the first
terminals to likely see thunderstorm activity. KSLN, KHUT and
KICT will follow a few hours later. KCNU is the exception this
evening and will likely see on and off thunderstorm activity.
KRSL and KSLN are the most likely terminals to see higher winds
with 40Kt winds possible for a brief period of time from 05Z and
08Z tonight. By 10Z, all terminals are expected to be clear of
any thunderstorms with KCNU likely to be last terminal to clear.
After 10Z, VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ070>072-094>096.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM