762
FXUS63 KICT 070145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
845 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk for locally damaging winds this evening in central KS.

- Periodic rounds of convection, some strong with locally heavy
  rainfall late tonight through Sunday night.

- Generally drier with a warming as we progress thru next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Broad troughing encompassed the interior conus with several
shortwaves traversing thru the flow this weekend which will
accentuate the upper trof from the Upper Midwest across the
lower Plains by Sunday night. A moderately unstable airmass and
likewise bulk shear will foster severe convection thru the late
afternoon from across northwest Kansas. Despite this broken line
of convection encountering somewhat less instability as it
moves east-southeast by early evening into west central/north
central Kansas, steep lapse rates will promote strong downdrafts
and storm-scale outflow with potential to affect northwest
portions of the forecast area, especially Russell/Lincoln/
Barton counties early this evening before weakening. Latest runs
of the HRRR/RAP lend more support/confidence in this scenario
thru the early evening. The forecast is a bit more tricky later
tonight into Sunday as there remains several plausible
convective scenarios. However, there seems to be general support
for additional convection overnight, possibly aided by
mesoscale influences, mainly across portions of western Kansas,
which will tend to move/propagate into western portions of
central and south central Kansas toward dawn. A few strong
storms will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall with
increased precipitable water (PWAT) values. While model trends
continue to support pushing the effective surface frontal
boundary into Oklahoma on Sunday, except perhaps far southeast
Kansas, the atmosphere will remain modestly unstable even with
limited surface heating across southern Kansas. This in combo
with decent cloud bearing shear will still support a few strong
storms from elevated and any quasi-surface based convection.
Rather high PWAT values will also foster efficient rainfall
rates as well into Sunday night. Convective chances will linger
into Monday within the mean upper trough over the area.

The southern portion of the aforementioned upper trof looks to
help steer the remnants of Beryl northeastward across the Ark-
La-Tex and Arkansas thru early next week. The northern portion
of the upper trof looks to linger across the Upper Midwest and
lower Missouri Valley through at least mid-week as the center of
the western conus upper ridge moves gradually east across the
Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. While non-zero,
chances for organized precip seem somewhat more limited with
temperatures gradually moderating closer to seasonal climo by
Friday.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An area of decaying showers and thunderstorms are moving into
the region this evening. KRSL and KGBD may see some light rain
but winds could be on the gusty side with 35-45kts possible for
the first few hours of the TAF period. After this, there will be
lull in the activity where all terminals will have VFR
conditions. By 09Z to 11Z, the chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase significantly. KGBD, KHUT and KICT
are the most likely terminals to see this thunderstorm activity.
This thunderstorm activity is not expected to be severe but
heavy rain could restrict VSBYs for a period of time between 11Z
and 16Z this morning. Once this activity passes, VFR conditions
are expected to return to the region for the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ELM