847
FXUS63 KICT 041956
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible across far southeast KS late this
  afternoon and evening.

- Heat indices near 105 will continue this afternoon across far
  southeast KS.

- Seasonable temperatures expected over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A an outflow boundary/effective front continues to be draped
across portions of far southeast Kansas this afternoon. This
front has been quite slow moving most of the day thus far.

Enough heating/destabilization is expected along and ahead of the
front this afternoon to continue to warrant the risk of a few severe
storms.  Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and heavy rain look to be the
primary concern with modest ML & DCAPE combo along with
anomalously high PW and steep lapse rates. Thinking initiation
time would be in the 21-01Z timeframe. Activity is expected to
drift southeast in northern Oklahoma by tonight with much
quieter conditions expected area wide overnight. For those with
outdoor Independence Day activities planned for tonight, expect
10pm temperatures to be in the 70s with a light north wind.

A quiet day is expected for much of the day tomorrow with
temperatures expected to remain slightly below seasonable normal
(92) in the mid and upper 80s. Ridging is expected to remain over
the western CONUS over the next several days while slowly
amplifying. Meanwhile, broad troughing will remain draped
across mid america with several shortwave perturbations progged
to pass through the Plains over the next week. These will
bring intermittent chances for showers and storms along with
seasonable temperatures to the area over the next week. The
next best chance (30%) of showers and storms across the area
will return on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Patchy MVFR cigs in southern Kansas will lift/become VFR during
this afternoon. Scattered convection is expected along a front
across southeast Kansas late this afternoon into the early
evening, though coverage low enough to limit mention to VCSH for
now at KCNU. North to northwest winds will prevail across the
area thru the forecast valid period.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...KED